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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: US reciprocal tariffs have officially vifu.nete into effect, and the US dollar index hovers around US$98". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 8, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.03. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index plunged intraday and finally closed down 0.13% to 98.041 as Trump nominated for interim Fed directors. The 10-year U.S. Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, with U.S. Treasury yields rising, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.259% and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.736%. The risk aversion sentiment caused by Trump's tariffs and the weakening of the US dollar, spot gold rose to a two-week high, once standing above the $3,400 mark, and finally closed up 0.8%, closing at $3,396.31/ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.15%, at $38.26/ounce. International crude oil fell for the sixth consecutive trading day as news that Putin will meet with Trump has triggered market expectations of a ceasefire from Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude oil turned from rising to falling, and finally closed down 0.69% at $63.22 per barrel, hitting a new low of two months; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.65% at $66.16 per barrel.
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.03. The Trump administration's recent tough attitude towards tariffs may support the dollar in the short term, but in the long run, trade frictions may weaken the vifu.netpetitiveness of the US economy and thus drag down the dollar's performance. In addition, the dynamics of emerging market currencies such as China are also worth paying attention to. If these currencies strengthen due to policy adjustments, the relative attractiveness of the US dollar may further decline. Technically, if the US dollar index climbs toAbove 98.50, it will move towards the 98.97 moving average of 50. Breakthrough of the 50 moving average will push the US dollar index toward resistance levels of 99.20–99.40.
On Friday, gold hovered around 3391.17. Gold hit a new high in more than two weeks since July 23, and safe-haven demand has become the core driving force for gold prices to rise. Intensifying global trade tensions, weak U.S. labor market data and continued heating of Fed rate cut expectations, together providing strong support for gold. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty has also added support to the rise in gold prices. Looking ahead to the future market, the three major catalysts need to be closely watched: the fluctuations in policy expectations that may be triggered by the Federal Reserve Chairman's nomination hearing on August 21, the specific introduction of tariff retaliation measures by India and other countries on the US, and the possible energy market fluctuations after the Putin-Trump meeting. Before these variables are clear, the fluctuation of gold prices near the $3,400 mark may become the new normal, but each pullback may attract more safe-haven funds. In this summer full of uncertainty, gold may usher in another highlight moment of its own.
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 63.16. Domestic crude oil futures prices continued to fluctuate and fall on Thursday. U.S. service industry activity unexpectedly remained basically the same in July, with little change in orders and employment further weakened. According to the executive order signed by Trump on July 31, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported to the United States starting from August 7. After superimposing the tariffs announced on the 6th, India's imports from the United States will generally apply a 50% tariff rate. But according to an announcement released by the United States, the new tariff measures will be implemented 21 days after the executive order is announced. Data from the U.S. Energy vifu.netrmation Administration shows that as of the week ending August 1, the total U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, were 826.638 million barrels, down 2.794 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. vifu.netmercial crude oil inventories were 423.662 million barrels, down 3.029 million barrels from the previous week. Technically, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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