Wonderful introduction:
Let your sorrows be full of worries, and you can't sleep, and you can't sleep. The full moon hangs high, scattered all over the ground. I think that the bright moon will be ruthless, and the wind and frost will fade away for thousands of years, and the passion will fade away easily. If there is love, it should have grown old with the wind. Knowing that the moon is ruthless, why do you repeatedly express your love to the bright moon?
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has fallen to approach the 98 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated near the 98 mark, and the US dollar rose on Thursday, after Bloomberg News reported that Fed Director Waller is becoming a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman of the Trump presidential team. Waller has met with members of Trump’s team, who are impressed by him, but he has not met with the president yet, according to Bloomberg.
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.06, and geopolitical risks and uncertainty in trade policies are also important factors affecting the US dollar trend. The Trump administration's recent tough attitude towards tariffs may support the dollar in the short term, but in the long run, trade frictions may weaken the vifu.netpetitiveness of the US economy and thus drag down the dollar's performance. In addition, the dynamics of emerging market currencies such as China are also worth paying attention to. If these currencies strengthen due to policy adjustments, the relative attractiveness of the US dollar may further decline. Technically, since the US dollar index is difficult to rebound to 98.683, the technical pressure tends to test 98.200. If the bearish momentum accelerates, further test 97.109 may be tested.
Jinshi data reported on August 8 that Japanese government bonds fell slightly in the early trading, following the decline in US bond prices overnight. In the report, two members of Barclays fixed income, foreign exchange and vifu.netmodity research department said that the Japanese government bond market seemed relatively calm before the joint plenary meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party's supra-democratic Party's sermons and Houses of Representatives this afternoon. They pointed out: "There is a high degree of uncertainty in the results, and this result is unlikely to be reflected in the Japanese Treasury spot market until the beginning of next week." According to local media reports, the meeting is expected to discuss the issue of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's stay or leave. The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond rose by 1 basis point to 1.495%.
The new round of tariff agreement between Japan and the United States will officially vifu.nete into effect on August 7. Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, Japan, said that the US's unilateral tariff policy is full of randomness, and such an approach will increase trade tensions.The United States' bullying in trade. Uchiyama pointed out that the so-called "reciprocal tariff" measures implemented by the United States will have a profound impact on the Japanese economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises will become the "biggest victim" of the tariff impact. Uchiyama specifically pointed out that the so-called "reciprocal tariff" measures of the United States against many global trading partners this time are a unilateral action that seriously violates international trade rules. This not only violates the basic principles of the World Trade Organization, but may also undermine the global trade order and lead to a slowdown in global economic growth.
"Federal Mickey Bottle" Nick Timiraos said that Trump's nominated Fed governor Stephen Milan has always been a staunch supporter of the former's economic agenda and has strongly criticized the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates last year. Milan criticized the “revolving door” mechanism between the Federal Reserve and the executive last year (often swaps between government officials, regulators and the private sector). "Cutting off the revolving door between the Fed and the executive branch is crucial to reducing the motivation for officials to act in the short-term political interests of the president." In his paper, he proposed that a vifu.netprehensive legislative reform of the Fed's governance system should be carried out on the grounds that the existing system has failed to ensure it remains politically neutral. Specific proposals include: allowing the president to remove Fed directors for any reason and imposing a four-year ban on Fed officials from serving in the executive branch.
The latest monthly survey of the New York Fed shows that consumers' confidence in the Fed's long-term inflation management has declined. Data shows that consumers' expectations for inflation in the next five years are 2.9%, up from 2.6% surveyed in June. Short-term inflation expectations remained basically the same, with expectations for the next year rising from 3% in June to 3.1%, and expectations for the next three years remained stable at 3%. In other aspects, consumer confidence remained good in July. Fewer consumers (37%) believe the unemployment rate will be higher in a year, the lowest since January. Consumers believe that if needed, they are 51% likely to find a new job in the next three months, up from 49.6% in June. Consumers say they expect government debt to grow by 9.1% in the next 12 months, up from 7.3% a month ago.
The Bank of England warned that its long-term bond sales could exacerbate tensions in some UK Treasury markets, suggesting that the bank may need to slow down its balance sheet shrinkage. BoE officials said in an analysis that the sale of bonds could have a "greater impact" on liquidity in the UK Treasury market amid the decline in long-term asset demand. This analysis is intended to vifu.netrm policy makers and investors before making annual quantitative austerity decisions. "Uncertainty in global economic policy, the massive issuance of government bonds in various countries and the settlement of domestic bond markets," the report said.Structural changes (these changes reduce the demand for long-term government bonds) all push up bond maturity premiums. These changes in the UK Treasury market may bring the risk that quantitative tightening will have a greater impact on market operations than before. ”
vifu.netmerzbank wrote that the Bank of England may remain cautious when inflation remains high and interest rate makers are disagreeing. The inflation rate in the UK remains high, and as food prices rise, the UK's inflation rate may rise to 4%. We insist that the Bank of England will only continue to lower key interest rates at the next meeting.
Soviet Bank economist Kunal Kundu said in a report that the decision to suspend interest rate cuts on Wednesday seemed out of place, given the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India. The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Indian exports, which could drag down India's economic growth. The downside risks faced by economic growth are certain, although the extent of the impact will depend on where the final tariff rate is set. The Indian Central Bank kept the policy repurchase rate unchanged at 5.50%, and the monetary policy stance remained neutral. However, the tariffs Uncertainty could limit India's economy and make the bank necessary to cut interest rates.
Odonaho, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said the RBA will cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points next week to 3.60%, and the policy vifu.netmittee may pass a 9-0 vote. He added that the policy meeting is unlikely to lead to substantial changes in inflation or labor market forecasts, but it is possible to make a more optimistic assessment of near-term consumption. It is said that forward-looking guidance that indicates that further interest rate cuts may be the most worthy aspect of this meeting.
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