The US dollar index fluctuates sideways, and the EU's tariff counter-attack against the United States is postponed again. Trump takes a heavy blow to India!

On August 5, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.67. On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated sideways and finally closed slightly higher by 0.05% at 98.708. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated and fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 4.197%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 3.679%. Benefiting from the rise in expectations of interest rate cuts, spot gold rose for the third consecutive trading day, once standing above the $3380 mark, and finally closed up 0.32%, closing at $3373.56/ounce; spot silver also extended its upward trend and finally closed up 0.99% to $37.41/ounce. International crude oil fell to a one-week low as OPEC+'s another sharp increase in production offsets market concerns that market sanctions on Russian oil could trigger supply shortages. WTI crude oil opened low and closed low, finally closing down 1.47% at $65.67 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.18% at $68.53 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.67. The dollar was recovering some of its declines on Monday, but was still limited to below 98.7, well below the highs near the psychological level of 100.00 last week. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully closes above 99.00, it will move towards resistance at 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1579. Euro/USD on MondayThe deal has stalled and has little change after Friday's non-farm employment report rose more than 1.52%, triggering a rise in expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut at its September meeting. The pair is trading near Friday's closing price. Technically, breaking through the 1.1590 level will push the EUR/USD to the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3292. The pound continued its upward momentum on Monday, bringing the pound/dollar back to around 1.3300, while exacerbating Friday's rebound. The pound's higher is due to the lack of direction of the dollar, and caution is expected to begin soon before the Bank of England meeting later this week. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above the 1.3300 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.3370–1.3390.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3378.47. Gold prices rose slightly on Monday following Friday’s bleak U.S. nonfarm jobs report last Friday. Expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen since last Friday. Expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve are boosting gold. The probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 87%.

Technical: After climbing above the intersection of the $50 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), gold broke through the $3,400 level as buyers focus on testing the $3,350 mark. Citi's uptick to gold/dollar prices could prompt bulls to hit year-to-date (YTD) highs of $3,500 before retesting the June 16 peak of $3,452. On the other hand, if gold falls below $3342, the next support will be $3300, followed by the 100-day moving average $3263.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 65.63. WTI transactions fell slightly after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) approved another sharp increase in production in September. OPEC+ held a virtual meeting on Sunday, agreeing to increase oil production by 5.47 million barrels per day (bps) in September as concerns over potential supply disruptions related to Russia increased. The group began to increase production in April, with a slight increase of 138K barrels per day, followed by an increase of more than 411K barrels per day in May, June and July, an increase of 548K barrels per day in August and a growth of 547K barrels in September./day.

Technical: Due to the stability of the key support at $64.85, the (crude oil) price rose in the last session, providing a positive momentum that helped it recover some of its previous losses, trying to unload some of its obvious oversold conditions on (RSI), especially as it began to show positive overlap signals, the negative pressure from its trading below EMA50 continues with a small bearish wave dominant in the short term, which hinders any attempt to recover.

Forex market trading reminder on August 5, 2025

①09:45 China's July S&P Global Service Industry PMI

②14:45 France's June industrial output monthly rate

③15:50 France's July service industry PMI final value

④15:55 Germany's July service industry PMI final value

⑤16:00 Eurozone's July service industry PMI final value

⑥16:30 UK's July service industry PMI final value

⑦17:00 Eurozone June PPI monthly rate

⑧20:30 US June trade account

⑨21:45 US July S&P Global Services PMI final value

22:00 US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI

? The next day 04:30 US to the week of August 1

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