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The non-agricultural outcry, the Federal Reserve suddenly experienced a personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts soared overnight!

Post time: 2025-08-04 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Non-agricultural upset, the Federal Reserve's sudden personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts skyrocketed overnight!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On August 4, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.85. Last Friday, the US dollar index fell sharply as weak non-farm data drove the rate cut expectations to heat up sharply, breaking the 99 integer mark and finally closed down 1.363% to 98.67, the largest single-day drop in more than four months. The yields of US Treasury collectively plunged, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.225%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 3.698%. Spot gold rose sharply after the non-agricultural data was released, rising by more than $70, and finally closed up 2.21%, closing at $3362.88/ounce, setting a new weekly high and erasing all the declines during the week; spot silver trends were similar, but the increase was slightly worse, and finally closed up 0.76% to $37.05/ounce. International crude oil continues to decline as markets worry about OPEC+'s prospects for production increase and weaker than expected U.S. employment reports have exacerbated demand concerns. WTI crude oil continued to fall in the US session, finally closing down 3.29% at $66.65 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 3.26% at $69.35 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.85. After the non-agricultural data was released last week, the financial market responded quickly, showing a typical market dominated by "help aversion" and "loose expectations". The US dollar index fell rapidly after the data was released, with a drop of 0.42% at one point, reaching a low of 99.1899, setting a new intraday low. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 99.00 level, it will move to the next support level, which is in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1561. The euro/dollar rose more than 1% on Friday as the U.S. jobs report released by the U.S. was hit hard by the dollar, prompting investors to react, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice. Wall Street continues its losses amid concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy. The July non-farm employment (NFP) data is expected to be weaker than June, but the downward correction in the first two months, vifu.netbined with last month's data, has driven the euro/dollar rise. Technically, the EUR/USD is trying to stabilize above resistance level 1.1575–1.1590. If this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700.

The non-agricultural outcry, the Federal Reserve suddenly experienced a personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts soared overnight!(图1)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3260. The pound has now gained some new momentum, pushing the pound/dollar back to the positive zone above 1.3200, after the dollar lost momentum sharply after the U.S. employment report was released. The GBP/USD hovered at a two-day high amid a sharp correction in the U.S. dollar index, rebounding from an earlier four-month low of about 1.3140, and investors appear to have begun to reprice the Fed's possible rate cut at its September meeting. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.3250–1.3270, it will move to the next resistance level 1.3370–1.3390.

The non-agricultural outcry, the Federal Reserve suddenly experienced a personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts soared overnight!(图2)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3252.18. Gold prices fell slightly, ending the two-day consecutive rise in early Asian trading on Monday. Still, weak U.S. jobs data and tariff concerns could weigh on the dollar and help limit losses in dollar-denominated vifu.netmodities.

The non-agricultural outcry, the Federal Reserve suddenly experienced a personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts soared overnight!(图3)

Technical: Since the bearish crossing of moving averages is still in play, the relative strength index (RSI) on the 14th hovering below the midline, and the downward tendency of gold prices has not changed. The 21st-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 50-day moving average at the close of the day on Wednesday, confirming the bearish cross. Therefore, if the weekly closing price of gold is below the key support of the 100-day moving average, it may usher in a new downward trend and fall to the June 30 low of $3,248/ounce. Gold buyers' bottom line at May 20 low of $3,205 per ounce. On the other hand, any recovery attempt of gold prices will require breaking the resistance area of the 21-day moving average and 50-day moving average (near $3340/ounce). Before this, gold prices must break through the psychological price of $3,300 per ounce. If the gold price rebound continues, the next obstacle is expected to be the static resistance level of $3,380 per ounce.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 66.34. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced on Sunday that it plans to increase oil production in September by 547,000 barrels per day (bps) as concerns about potential supply disruptions related to Russia increased. OPEC+ started to increase production in April, with a slight increase of 138,000 barrels per day, followed by the increase in May, June and July, exceeding the planned 411,000 barrels per day, with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August and a growth of 547,000 barrels per day in September.

The non-agricultural outcry, the Federal Reserve suddenly experienced a personnel earthquake, and the expectation of interest rate cuts soared overnight!(图4)

Technical: As long as the market remains above the 64.40-week moving average of US$52, the market will remain constructive. If it breaks through $69.89 thoroughly, it will hit a June high of $77.09. Back below the moving average, the seller took control. A breakthrough of $62.69 opens the door to a deeper washout.

Forex market trading reminder on August 4, 2025

①14:30 Swiss July CPI monthly rate

②16:30 Eurozone August Sentix Investor Confidence Index

③22:00 US June factory order monthly rate

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