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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The market is waiting for non-agricultural data, trade reports favorable prices to limit the increase in gold prices, and silver hits a 13-year high." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (June 6, Beijing time), spot gold traded around 3358. After positive news in trade, safe-haven gold reversed downwards on Thursday, while silver broke through the key level of $35, setting a 13-year high; U.S. data showed that the number of initial unemployment claims increased for the second consecutive week last week. Now all eyes are turning to Friday's non-farm employment report; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.20 per barrel, and oil prices closed higher on Thursday, benefiting from positive trade news support.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday after volatile trading, with Tesla's stock price plummeting offsetting news of progress in tariff negotiations. Electric car maker Tesla's stock price plummeted by more than 14% as public quarrels between CEO Musk and Trump intensified. The stock has fallen for four trading days in the past five trading days. The vifu.netpany lost about $150 billion in market capitalization after Trump and Musk began a war of words.
In recent days, Musk has stepped up criticism of the president's massive tax legislation, while Trump said Musk was dissatisfied because the bill canceled tax benefits for buying electric vehicles. Mark Spiegel, portfolio manager at StanphylCapital, said the impact on Tesla stocks is self-evident, and that has little impact on the rest of the market except for a slight impact on indexes and index funds. There are many problems with the entire stock market, but Tesla is not one of them. "
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% to close at 42319.74 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to close at 5939.30 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.83% to close at 19298.45 points.
Winner-than-expected U.S. private employment and services data on Wednesday sparked market concerns about a slowdown in trade uncertainty, and investors focused on Friday's non-farm jobs report.
The initial unemployment benefits data on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment benefits in the United States rose for the second consecutive week last week. Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid said Thursday that the tariffs could reignite inflation, saying the pressure on price increases could appear in the vifu.neting months, but the full impact could take longer to fully manifest.
The remarks suggest that Schmid may be inclined to maintain Fed policy rates at its June 17-18 meeting, as markets generally expect, but will do so after that.
Despite Trump's call for a rate cut, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has chosen to remain silent and wait for further data to guide policy decisions amid the prevalence of tariff fluctuations.
U.S. stocks rebounded sharply in May, thanks to Trump's softening of tough trade stance and optimistic corporate earnings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting their biggest monthly percentage gains since November 2023.
Procter & Gamble said it will lay off 7,000 employees in the next two years, accounting for about 6% of its total employees. The consumer goods vifu.netpany's share price fell 1.9%.
After the trade positive news, safe-haven gold reversed its decline on Thursday, while silver broke through the key level of $35, setting a 13-year high.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3351.69 per ounce, and rose 0.6% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures closed down 0.7% to $3,375.10.
U.S. data shows that the number of initial jobless claims increased for the second consecutive week last week. Now all eyes are turning to Friday's non-farm employment report. Trump again called on Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on Wednesday.
Similar to this, spot silver jumped 1.9% to $35.61, after hitting its highest level since February 2012. The gold-silver ratio is currently 94, down from 105 in April. Platinum rose 4.8% to $1,136.45, its highest level since March 2022; palladium rose 0.3% to $1,003.56. Oil market
Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, rebounding from the previous day's decline, as Brent crude futures closed up 0.7% to $65.34 a barrel due to positive trade. U.S. crude oil settlement price rose 0.8% to $63.37 a barrel.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said that if we retreat from the brink of a major trade war, then oil demand will increase.
Two data showed that U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks increased more than expected, reflecting demandAsked for weakness, oil prices fell 1%.
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered its July price targeting Asian crude oil buyers to its lowest level in nearly two months, curbing the rise in crude oil prices.
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to its highest level in seven months last week, suggesting that labor market conditions are softening amid rising economic resistance caused by tariffs.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the U.S. non-farm employment report for May released on Friday may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the market will also focus on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The dollar fell against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank said it could end a year-long loose policy cycle and U.S. data showed weak labor market conditions amid increasing economic resistance from tariffs.
The ECB cut interest rates for the eighth time in a year on Thursday, acknowledging inflation was under control and becoming more pessimistic about the economic outlook amid the risk of a trade war with the United States.
European Central Bank President Lagarde said after the rate cut that the ECB's monetary policy easing cycle is vifu.neting to an end when responding to economic shocks including the Ukrainian war and the energy crisis, although it has not confirmed the suspension of interest rate cuts.
The euro rose to a high of $1.1495 against the dollar, hitting a six-week high, not far from the more than three-year high of $1.1573 hit on April 20, and the euro rose 0.18% late in the New York trading.
Scotiabank chief currency strategist Shaun Osborne said Lagarde said the ECB's interest rate cut cycle was about to end, and the euro rose against the dollar. The weakening of the dollar is a continuation of its recent weakness, which has fallen nearly 11% against the euro this year.
Osborne said this only roughly reflects the widespread softening sentiment in the U.S. dollar and is likely to continue into the non-farm employment data.
Data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States increased for the second consecutive week last week, indicating that labor market conditions have become softer amid increasing economic headwinds caused by tariffs, which also put pressure on the dollar.
The initial unemployment benefit data has nothing to do with the much-watched May non-farm employment report scheduled to be released on Friday, as the data is not within the non-farm employment report investigation period.
Reuters survey of economists showed that non-farm jobs were expected to increase by 130,000 last month, vifu.netpared with 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
The market has been in turmoil since Trump announced a series of tariffs on countries around the world on April 2. Investors remain concerned about the lack of progress in U.S. trade talks and the agreement reached before the tax deferred deadline in early July.
Although the dollar weakened against the euro, the dollar strengthened slightly against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss francs, reflecting thatPossible position adjustments before the release of employment data.
The US dollar rose 0.51% against the Japanese Yen to 143.49 yen and 0.16% against the Swiss franc to 0.819. The dollar is still down about 9% against the two safe-haven currencies this year. The dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, fell 0.09% to 98.71, down for the second consecutive trading day.
According to CME's "Feder Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.8%.
The US Treasury Department submitted a semi-annual report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies to Congress. In the report, the Treasury Department reviewed and evaluated the policies of major U.S. trading partners, which accounted for about 78% of U.S. foreign trade in goods and services in the four quarters ended December 2024. The review found that for the four quarters ended in December 2024, there were no major trading partners in the United States manipulating the exchange rate between its currencies and the U.S. dollar. Currently, there are 9 economies on the "monitoring list" of the Ministry of Finance's major trading partners, including: Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland.
On the 5th local time, Statistics Canada released data showing that due to the sharp decline in exports caused by US tariffs, Canada's vifu.netmodity trade deficit with the world expanded from 2.3 billion Canadian dollars in March to 7.1 billion Canadian dollars in April, the largest deficit on record. Data shows that Canada's overall exports fell 10.8% to CAD 60.4 billion in April, the lowest level since June 2023. Exports in automobiles and parts, consumer goods, energy products and other industries have declined significantly. Total imports fell by 3.5% to CAD 67.6 billion in April, of which the imports of automobiles and parts, industrial machinery and equipment and parts, consumer goods, electronics and electrical equipment and parts all fell sharply.
According to foreign media reports, U.S. consumers' premiums purchased by aluminum in the spot market hit a record high of 60 cents per pound or $1,323 per ton on Thursday, after the United States imposed higher tariffs on imported aluminum. Since November last year, the US Midwest aluminum premium has risen nearly 190%. When purchasing aluminum in the spot market, U.S. consumers usually pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price plus premium to cover costs including freight and taxes. The United States is highly dependent on aluminum imports, with the vast majority of them vifu.neting from Canada.
U.S. vifu.netmerce Secretary Lutnik said that US President Trump hopes to establish a vifu.netplete chip supply chain in the United States, strive to build an advanced chip factory within 18 months, and try to achieve a production of 5 million wafers during the Trump administration.
According to people familiar with the matter, ECB officials expect that the July meeting will suspend interest rate cuts. Sources said that given the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policy, after eight rate cuts, they are currently believed to be the most likely to suspend interest rate cuts in the future. Some officials believe the rate cut cycle may be over, while others support another rate cut, which may be in September. People familiar with the matter stressed that policymakers’ ideas may still change, especially as the July 9 deadline for U.S.-EU trade negotiations approaches. The next interest rate meeting is scheduled to be held from July 23 to 24. Traders have reduced their bets on further rate cuts, betting that a further 25 basis points cut this year is no longer a foregone conclusion.
In response to the UN Security Council's failure to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and end the genocide in Gaza, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae described the US government's veto of the resolution as a crime of continuing to participate in the Israeli regime on the 5th, and expressed strong condemnation. Bagae pointed out that the resolution was supported by 14 of the 15 members of the Security Council, and only the United States expressed its opposition. He said the U.S. government rejected the resolution aimed at forcing the Israeli regime to stop the genocide of Gaza, which is not only an obvious rejection of the international vifu.netmunity and the people in the region to terminate Israeli crimes, but also a sign of the moral decline of American policymakers and evidence of their participation and conspiracy to carry out the massacre in Palestine.
The US Challenger report shows that US employers announced layoffs of 93,816 in May, a 12% decrease from 105,441 in April and a 47% increase from 63,816 in the same period last year. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending and overall economic pessimism have put a lot of pressure on corporate employees. The vifu.netpany is reducing spending, slowing down hiring and issuing layoffs." As of May this year, employers have announced 696,309 layoffs, an 80% increase from 385,859 announced in the first five months of last year. vifu.netpared with the total number in 2024, there are still 65,049 people behind.
Recently, it was learned from the Ministry of Industry and vifu.netrmation Technology that in the first four months of this year, the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the National High-tech Zone reached 10.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, and the innovation-driven and industrial agglomeration effects continued to be released. workThe Ministry of Industry and vifu.netrmation Technology stated that the next step will focus on improving the innovation level, promote the national high-tech zone to deploy more high-level innovation platforms, strengthen original disruptive scientific and technological innovation, break through a number of key core technologies, and continue to play the role of the high-tech zone as a strategic fulcrum in stabilizing growth and promoting transformation.
Today, we learned from the National Data Administration that my country will deploy and build 10 national data element vifu.netprehensive pilot zones in Beijing, Zhejiang, Anhui and other places to support local governments to carry out pioneering trials in cultivating business entities and prospering the data market, and fully release the integration efficiency of the real economy and the digital economy.
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