"Small non-agricultural" far inferior to expectations, and Trump is angry with Powell again!

On June 5, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.75. On Wednesday, the dollar index fell below the 99 mark and returned to a six-week low, eventually closing down 0.42% at 98.813 as weak U.S. economic data pushed up expectations of interest rate cuts. The yield on the US Treasury fell sharply, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.359%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.883%. The weakening of the US dollar drove the rebound of spot gold. After data showed that the US service industry shrank for the first time in a year, gold's gains expanded rapidly, eventually closing up 0.61% to close at $3,373.72/ounce; spot silver closed down 0.03% to $34.492/ounce. Due to reports that Saudi Arabia plans to push OPEC+ to continue to increase production significantly, international crude oil plunged during the session, WTI crude oil once fell below the 62 mark and finally closed down 1.05% at $62.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.15% at $64.67 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.75. The dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, after weaker than expected U.S. private employment data highlighted a continued slowdown in the labor market, and the U.S. service sector shrank for the first time in about a year in May. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully closes below the 98.50 level, it will move towards the next support level in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: DeadlineThe EUR/USD hovered around 1.1424. The dollar erased Tuesday's gains after the U.S. released weaker-than-expected economic data. This vifu.netbined with uncertainty caused by the trade war has pushed the pair to break through the 1.1400 mark. The EU economic schedule will report on inflation data on producers, as well as the European Central Bank decision-making and a press conference by President Christina Lagarde. Across the ocean, the U.S. agenda will include last week's initial jobless claims and speeches from Fed officials. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 1.1425 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1555-1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3555. GBP/USD won a buy on Wednesday, cutting losses from the previous day and keeping the price trend high in the recent range. Buying remains firmer than 1.3500, with key U.S. non-farm employment data set to be released later this week. US dollar liquidity continues to dominate the market this week, with supply in UK economic data being thin until next week's UK employment data are released. Technically, if GBP/USD rises above the 1.3590 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 1.3615–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3375.34. The instability of the global economic environment, especially the unexpected shrinkage of the US service industry, the sluggish employment data and the impact of the Trump administration's new tariff policies, has provided strong impetus for the rise of gold. This trading day, we need to pay attention to the changes in the ECB interest rate resolution and the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In the medium and long term, it tends to support the gold price. In addition, continue to pay attention to the international trade situation and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

Technical: Technically, the problem facing gold bulls is not the support level, but the resistance level. In early May, gold prices formed a lower high at $3,435, well below the previous high of $3,500. This led to a lower high at the end of May around $3350, and the bulls have now broken through that level, even showing signs of support at this previous resistance level. This opens the door to gold’s short-term momentum strategy, with prices expected to advance toward the previous lower high of $3435. At that time, the bigger question is whether the bulls can rebound all the way to the $3,500 level. The more attractive background of gold is still the short-term counter-trend trend, just like we looked at a few weeks agoThe support level reached around $3150, or in a shorter time, the support level of $3250 last week was the same.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 61.93. WTI prices fell slightly as Saudi Arabia suggested a possible push for a sharp increase in production, sparking concerns about global oil surplus. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to increase production again on Saturday. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July at a steady pace after increasing production in May and June.

Technical aspect: Technically, from the daily chart level, the medium-term trend moving average system suppresses the rebound of oil prices, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. After the oil price hits the low point of 55.20, the frequent alternation of bulls and bears formed. From the perspective of the pattern, the prototype of the falling flag-shaped relay appears. Pay attention to the strength of the oil price testing the upper edge of the flag. It is expected that after the medium-term trend fluctuates, it will still fall to the 50 position. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continues to fluctuate upward, oil prices repeatedly cross the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend shows a volatile rhythm. From the perspective of kinetic energy, the MACD indicator appears above the zero axis, showing a top divergence, indicating a signal of weakening of the upper action energy.

Forex market trading reminder on June 5, 2025

09:45 China's Caixin Service Industry PMI in May

13:45 Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May

17:00 Eurozone April PPI monthly rate

19:30 US May challenger vifu.netpanies layoffs

20:15 European Central Bank announced interest rate resolution

20:30 US April trade account

20:30 US initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to May 31

20:45 European Central Bank Bank President Lagarde held a press conference

22:00 US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in May

22:30 US to May 30 EIA natural gas inventories

00:00 the next day

Federal Director Kugler delivered a speech

01:30 the next day

Federal Huck delivered a speech on the economic outlook

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