The U.S. dollar index approaches the 100 mark, and the Fed’s December interest rate cut remains unclear

On November 4, in early Asian trading on Tuesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.94. On Monday, as the market had doubts about the prospect of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, the U.S. dollar index continued its gains, approaching the 100 mark during the session, and finally closed up 0.15% at 99.85. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally closed at 4.113%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.617%. Spot gold fluctuated around the US$4,000 mark during the day, and finally closed down 0.07%, at US$4,000.44 per ounce; spot silver fell sharply during the US trading session, and finally closed down 1.27%, at US$48.06 per ounce. Although OPEC+ plans to suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026, the market is still worried about oil oversupply and weak factory data in Asia. Crude oil fluctuated at high levels. WTI crude oil fluctuated around $61 and finally closed up 0.26% at $60.82/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.27% at $64.65/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.94. The U.S. interbank reserve ratio is at a historically low level, which provides clear short-term support for the U.S. dollar. However, this is just a monetary phenomenon. When the U.S. dollar index reaches around 100, a short squeeze may occur. Since there is no substantial benefit or rapid adjustment, traders need to be wary of the risk of being short squeezed and try to avoid chasing prices higher. Technically, the nearest resistance level for the U.S. dollar index is located in the 100.00–100.15 range. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to close at 100.1Above the 5 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 101.85–102.00.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1509. EUR/USD hovered near three-month lows on the back of a stronger greenback. In the past three trading days, the currency pair has fallen by nearly 1% due to the rise in the U.S. dollar driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. On Monday, the euro zone manufacturing data was slightly better than expected, but it did not change the downward trend of the euro. The market focused on two key data: one is the final value of the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in October, and the other is the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI released later that day. Technically, a break below the 1.1515 level will push EUR/USD towards the next support level at 1.1400–1.1415.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3123. GBP/USD managed to hold the brakes at the start of the new trading week, finding enough friction to halt further losses with price action hovering around the 1.3150 level. A technical rebound is yet to materialize and GBP traders may continue to experience some volatility as they await the latest interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE). Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the 1.3145 level, it will head towards the support levels of 1.3015-1.3030.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Tuesday, gold hovered around 3992.17. Precious metals edged lower as traders scaled back bets on further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Fed Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak later in the day. The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates for the second time this year, but Chairman Jerome Powell said another rate cut this year is "not a certainty." Hawkish vifu.netments from Federal Reserve officials dragged gold lower. The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0% at its October meeting last week.

Technical: The bullish 20 SMA broke above the longer SMA, although price is trading below it, leaving the $20 4088 SMA as immediate dynamic resistance. The bullish 100 SMA is at $3,590, while the 200 SMA is trending higher at $3,353, both of which support the broader bullish bias. Additionally, the momentum indicator failed toA break above the mid-line pulled back further, setting a new multi-session low and signaling growing bearish pressure. The RSI remains flat at 51, indicating a lack of directional strength and moderating bearish impulses. A daily close back above the 20 SMA at $4,088 would reconsolidate the upside and open the door for further gains, while failure to reclaim this support would tilt risks towards a retest of the ascending support band at $3,590/$3,353.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Tuesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 60.70. Oil prices stabilized on Monday under the influence of multiple factors. On the one hand, the market digested OPEC+'s decision to increase production. At the same time, the impact of the increase in production has been offset by the support provided by the mid- to long-term suspension of production increases.

Technical aspect: U.S. crude oil shows a box shock pattern. The price rebounded after hitting a stage low of $55.96, and then rose to a high of $62.59, marking the vifu.netpletion of a considerable technical rebound. The current price is running near the $61 mark. From the K-line pattern, the price has been blocked and fell back in this area many times, which shows that the short sellers have a strong defensive willingness at this position and it is difficult to effectively break through in the short term. In terms of support below, the area from US$59.50 to US$59.25 forms an important support band; this range has gathered a large number of bullish defensive orders, forming an important bottom line for the current market. If the price falls below this support band, it may open the door to a further test of the previous low of $55.96. The MACD indicator fluctuates near the zero axis, with the DIFF line reporting at 0.16, the DEA line reporting at 0.10, and the MACD histogram value at 0.12. Judging from the indicator shape, the MACD line and signal line are running above the zero axis, but the distance between the two lines is relatively close, indicating that the bullish momentum is relatively limited. The histogram turned to red column expansion after experiencing the early green column contraction, but the intensity was not significant, indicating that although the bulls have counterattack intentions, the upward attack strength is still insufficient. The relative strength index RSI is at a neutral level of 50.27. It has neither entered the overbought zone nor the oversold zone. This value is just near the long-short dividing line. Judging from the trajectory of RSI, after falling back from the overbought area in the early stage, the indicator is currently consolidating in the mid-range area, reflecting that the long and short forces in the market have temporarily reached a balance.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 4, 2025

①Pending announcement of the Canadian government’s annual budget

②11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision

③12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock holds a press conference

④15:40 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech

⑤19:35 Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman participates in the discussion

⑥21:30 U.S. September trade balance

⑦23:00 U.S. September JOLTs job vacancies

⑧23:00U.S. factory orders monthly rate in September

⑨API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to October 31 at 05:30 the next day

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