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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Official Website】: Manufacturing data is mixed, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 2nd". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.58%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.94%. The German DAX index fell 1.46%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.20%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.36%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.83%.
⑴ This Tuesday, the US market will usher in a number of important economic data. ⑵ Survey data shows that the initial value of S&P global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022. ⑶ However, the market generally expects that the ISM manufacturing PMI will only rise slightly to 49.0 in August, and is still in the contraction range. ⑷ July construction expenditure data is expected to fall by 0.1% month-on-month, which will be the tenth decline in the past eleven months. ⑸ Analysis points out that due to factors such as long-term high interest rates, market uncertainty and material tariff remarks, builders are facing continued difficulties, especially in the residential field. ⑹In addition, the US Treasury Department plans to issue multiple batches of treasury bills today, with a huge total amount, which will also have an impact on market liquidity. ⑺ Various data and market activities are intertwined to jointly depict the current vifu.netplex economic picture.
⑴ Long-term government bond yields in some major European economies soared, setting a new high in more than a decade. ⑵ Investors' financial health for France and other major countriesFeeling worried about the situation. ⑶ Data shows that France's 30-year government bond yield rose to 4.5%, which is expected to hit the highest closing level since the global financial crisis in 2009. ⑷ Germany's long-term government bond yield rose to 3.4%, which could hit the highest closing level since the eurozone's sovereign debt crisis in 2011. ⑸ The yield on the vifu.netherlands' 30-year Treasury bond also reached 3.57%, the highest since 2011, while the yield on the UK's 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest since 1998 by 5.69%. ⑹ Analysis points out that even in an orderly market, there is a vicious cycle of slow development: concerns about debt push up yields, which in turn worsens the debt situation and further push up yields. ⑺In addition, the inflation data released on Tuesday was higher than expected, which also increased the pressure on the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged.
⑴ Agency data showed that Russia's sea diesel and gas oil exports fell by 6% month-on-month to about 3.1 million tons in August. ⑵The main reason for the decline in exports is the production impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. ⑶ According to calculations, at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity (about 1.1 million barrels per day) was therefore forced to close. ⑷ Data shows that diesel and gas oil loads at the Black Sea Novorossiysk ports fell by about 12% from July to 830,000 tons. ⑸ However, diesel exports from Russia's Baltic port Primorsk increased by 5.4% month-on-month to 1.33 million tons. ⑹Institutional data show that Türkiye and Brazil were the largest importers of Russia's diesel and gas oil last month, and Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal are also major importers. ⑺Although some ports exports have increased, the decline in overall export volume reflects the substantial impact of geopolitical conflicts on Russia's energy production and supply.
⑴Institutional strategists report shows that the current full load rate of natural gas storage facilities in Europe has exceeded 77%. ⑵ This narrows the gap between the current level of natural gas inventories in Europe and the average in the past five years to 8.4 percentage points. ⑶ Although Germany's inventory is catching up, it is still lagging behind, with a full load rate of only slightly above 70%, and the gap from the historical average is more than 15 percentage points. ⑷European gas power plants used in August was lower than the same period last year, which may accelerate inventory replenishment. ⑸ According to data, the EU's vifu.net gas public power generation fell by 2.4% year-on-year. ⑹European natural gas prices remained highly volatile despite adequate supply, rising again since last Thursday after falling to €31 per megawatt-hour. ⑺Institutions believe that the European natural gas market is still in a state of high volatility and needs to be paid attention to.
⑴ The latest 10-year treasury bonds in the UK received bids of more than 140 billion pounds, with a subscription multiple of more than 10 times. ⑵The batch of treasury bonds due in October 2035 are expected to be raised£14 billion (US$18.7 billion), a record. ⑶ The final pricing of the bond is 8.25 basis points higher than the benchmark interest rate during the same period, which is located at the lower limit of the guidance range, and the face value interest rate is 4.75%. ⑷ Asset management vifu.netpany Pioneer Leader confirmed that it has established a larger position in this issuance. ⑸ International interest rate director Ales Courtney said that despite the market's concerns about the UK's fiscal situation and political development, new debt subscriptions are still more than 10 times. ⑹UK Treasury bonds are currently more attractive than German French bonds that face similar fiscal concerns.
⑴ On Tuesday, the dollar against the yen rose due to dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan and rumors of resigning from senior ruling party members. ⑵This political uncertainty puts greater pressure on Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and further exacerbates the depreciation of the yen. ⑶ The market is closely monitoring whether the US dollar against the Japanese yen can break through the key resistance level, that is, the 200-day moving average is 148.88. If it is successfully broken, it may open a channel for the August high of 150.91. ⑷ Faced with this risk, the options market alert sounded, and the US dollar call options with exertion prices of 150.00 and 151.00 are active in less than a month. ⑸ In addition, the one-month implied volatility of the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to a four-week high of 10.05, and the risk reversal also shows the market's hedging demand for the upward risk of the US dollar. ⑹ Although the bearish premium of the one-month risk reversal yen has declined, it remains at 1.1 yen. ⑺These data indicate that the market is actively hedging the risk of the yen depreciation to the 150 mark and above.
⑴Goldman Sachs raised its average price forecast for iron ore in the fourth quarter of 2025. ⑵Forecast is raised from US$90 per ton to US$95 per ton. ⑶ Despite this, Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for the year-end iron ore price in 2026, which is still $80 per ton. ⑷ The agency pointed out that the supply of new low-cost iron ore continues to increase in 2026, and iron ore port inventory is expected to increase significantly by 48 million tons in 2026. ⑸ This shows that although iron ore prices are boosted in the short term, in the long run, supply and demand fundamentals may face downward pressure. ⑹While the market pays attention to short-term price increases, it also needs to be vigilant about the possible inventory accumulation risks in the future.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1629, a drop of 0.70%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) fell in the last session, breaking through the EMA50 support level, putting it under negative pressure, especially as negative signals (RSI) appear, despite reaching oversold levels, indicating a rapid decline in bearish momentum, which will offset the chances of recovery.
British Pound/USYuan: As of 20:23 Beijing time, pound/USD fell and is now at 1.3357, a drop of 1.37%. Before New York, (GBPUSD) prices fell on the last trading day, collecting gains from previous gains and trying to get bullish momentum that could help it recover and rise again, in addition to offloading the obvious overbought conditions on (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative signals, leveraging its dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50 and trading next to the supportive slash of the track, dominated by short-term bullish trends.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3482.41, an increase of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose on the last trading day, ready to attack the main resistance level of $3,500 after the price successfully collected the previous gains and unloaded the (RSI) overbought conditions, opening the way for more gains, with the main bullish trend dominating, and its trading follows the secondary and major slashes indicating the strength of the track.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 40.352, a drop of 0.82%. Before the New York market, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day after its early decline aimed at collecting its previous rise and unloading its apparent overbought conditions on (RSI), trying to recover and start a new bull market, with a dominant bullish trend, and its trading was accompanied by a small supportive bias on the track, with positive pressure from its trading above the EMA50 continuing to exist, strengthening the positive momentum.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 65.660, an increase of 2.58%. Before New York, the (crude oil) price rose on the last trading day, taking advantage of its stability above the EMA50, which provides dynamic support, maintaining the continuation of the short-term bullish trend, accompanied by a bullish correction slash, indicating the strength of the dominant bullish momentum so far.
RaymondJames warned that the rise in the U.S. stock market driven by strong profits, falling yields and weaker oil prices will face a test in the vifu.neting weeks. Potential risks includeGeopolitical tensions, new jobs data, and the bond market's reaction to court rulings related to Trump-era tariffs. The agency also pointed out that the momentum of the AI sector is gradually weakening due to market concerns that the new model will perform weakly and project progress will stagnate, but cloud service spending remains strong. Raymond? James expects that earnings growth of mid-cap and small-cap stocks will accelerate from the end of 2025 to 2026, but also reminds that similar optimistic expectations a year ago have not been realized.
Dutch International Group economist Bert Clariant said in a report that the inflation rate in the euro zone has risen slightly to a slightly higher than the ECB's target level of 2%. Although the future prospects face many risks, this data confirms that the current inflation environment is generally stable. Given that interest rates are already at neutral levels, it is a logical decision to choose to pause interest rate cuts at this time. However, given the weak economic growth, the uncertainty of the future economy, and the general market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, some European Central Bank policymakers may still push for another rate cut. But this possibility is relatively low, because the reason for maintaining interest rates is quite sufficient.
The above content is all about "【XM official website】: The manufacturing data is mixed, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 2" was carefully vifu.netpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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