The US dollar index maintains a volatile pattern, and the market focuses on US employment data this week

On the Asian session on Monday, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 97.79, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and Swiss franc last Friday, and the U.S. dollar index recorded a monthly decline of about 2% in August as traders prepared for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The U.S. inflation data meets expectations. The U.S. dollar strengthened at the beginning of the data release, but then gave up its gains, failing to break the three consecutive days of decline. This week will be a shortened trading week. The North American market is closed on Monday due to Labor Day. CME's precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contract trading closed in advance at 02:30 Beijing time on September 2. In addition to the US non-farm employment report that will be released on Friday, investors also need to pay attention to the ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, the ADP employment data on Thursday, the weekly unemployment benefits applications and the ISM service industry PMI.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.79. Technically, the US dollar index is still trapped in a key retracement range, with resistance at 98.317 and support at 97.859. The price hovers below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, 98.000), if the bulls can push the price to close above 98.317, or further test the 98.834 and 99.320 resistance levels. If the price falls below the 97.859 support level, it may further fall 97.556 and 97.109.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD hovered around 1.1698, which extended its fifth trading day gain during the Asian session on Monday, with a trading price of around 1.1700. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut at its September meeting rose as the US dollar (USD) faced challenges, driving the appreciation of the pair. The U.S. market will watch the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Technically, EUR/USD fell to 1.1573 last week, but rebounded soon. The overall outlook has not changed, and the correction decline from 1.1829 should be vifu.netpleted with three waves to 1.1390. Upside, above 1.1741 will be retested first 1.1829 high. A firm breakthrough will return to a larger uptrend. However, a sustained breakthrough of 1.1573 will weaken this view and indicate that the correction pattern of 1.1829 is extending, and another downward leg is moving towards 1.1390 ​​again. From a larger perspective, a long-term bottom rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) may correct the decades of downtrend or the start of a long-term uptrend. In either case, further uptrends should be expected to rise from 1.0176 to 0.9534 to 1.1274. As long as the 1.1604 support remains unchanged, this will still be a favorable situation.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3518. From a technical perspective, the direct support of GBP/USD was at 1.3400, followed by the 100-day index moving average (EMA) 1.3368 on the daily chart. On the upside, Thursday's high of 1.3530 provided the first resistance level, followed by the high of 1.3594 on August 14. Breakthroughs of these levels will open the door for further gains, and failure to stay above 1.3400 may trigger deeper correction pressure.

Summary of news from foreign exchange market

1. US tariffs have been increased to 50%. The Indian Minister of vifu.netmerce and Industry has made a public statement for the first time: It will not surrender, focus on opening up new markets

After the US tariffs on Indian goods exported to 50%, Indian vifu.netmerce and Industry Minister Peyush Goyal said in his first public speech on Friday (August 29), local time that India will not "submission", but focus on opening up new markets. According to reports, Goyal said at a construction event held in New Delhi that day that India has always been open to the signing of a free trade agreement. But he also added that India "will neither surrender nor show weakness" and "we will continue to work together to explore new markets." The report quoted Goyal as saying that Indian politicsThe government will introduce a number of measures in the vifu.neting days to support various industries and promote exports. He said, "I can confidently say that India's export volume this year will exceed the figures from 2024 to 2025."

2. Japanese Minister of Economic Regeneration Ryomasa Akazawa: U.S. policy is changing, the Japanese economy has suffered a shock

Japanese Minister of Economic Regeneration Ryomasa Akazawa said on the 29th that he needs to visit the United States at least once for consultation on the issue of Japan-US tariff negotiations. Eijo Kumano, chief economic analyst at the Japan First Life Economics Institute, believes that due to the changing US policies, there is still great uncertainty in the negotiations between Japan and the United States, but the negative impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy has gradually emerged. Eijo Kumano, chief economic analyst at the Japan First Life Economics Institute: Japanese vifu.netpanies are still facing heavy tariff pressure and have to transfer tariff costs significantly to the selling price, which will inevitably curb sales in the US market.

3. The Israeli air strike caused the death of Houthi officials. The Houthi armed forces vowed to retaliate quickly.

The Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement on August 30, saying that they would retaliate against the death of several important members of the organization in the Israeli air strike. Mehdi Masharat, chairman of the Houthi armed forces' "Supreme Political vifu.netmittee", delivered a speech through the organization's Masila TV station, saying that he would take revenge soon. He reiterated that the Houthi armed forces "will not change their position on the Gaza Strip until the aggression ceases and the blockade is lifted." Previously, the Houthi armed forces vifu.netrmed that its executive director Ahmed Rahavi and several colleagues were killed in an Israeli airstrike during the annual work meeting on the 28th, and several other members were injured and are currently undergoing treatment in the hospital.

4. Investment experts: The focus of non-farming in August will be data corrections, and employment may rebound in the third and fourth quarters

AJBell investment experts Russ Mold, Danny Hugsen and Dan Cotsworth said: "Some people believe that the data and corrections for non-farming in July mean that the U.S. economy has begun to weaken. People will initially vifu.netpare the August data with the early July values, but the focus will quickly shift to further corrections to the June and July data. Considering the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff statement and the way to extend deadlines and negotiations, American vifu.netpanies are in the first place. It is vifu.netpletely understandable that it is unwilling to make major employment or investment decisions in the second quarter. Therefore, with the conclusion of the trade agreement, the final tariff level is determined, and vifu.netpanies have a clear understanding of the face of the new world, these numbers may rebound rapidly in the third and fourth quarters. ”

5. ECB officials refuted the view that "there will not be any more interest rate cuts in the next few months": inflation risks tend to fall

According to the Financial Times, the ECB Management vifu.netmittee Renne refuted the view that some investors believe that it is impossible to cut interest rates again in the next few months. He stressed that inflation risks are currently "inclined to fall." Rennes warned not to be "complacent" with price stability, although annual inflation has been in line with the ECB's 2% medium-term target over the past two months. “We mustIt is important to note the downside risks of inflation, energy prices fall, euro strengthens, and inflation in the service industry is under control. Renne said that while the U.S. trade agreement may help reduce uncertainty, the U.S. tariffs on most European exports may slow down "a few decimal points" in the euro zone's economic growth. He added that the EU is reluctant to take retaliatory measures, "meaning we won't see prices of imported American goods in the euro zone rise."

Institutional View

1. Institutional: Inflation and tariffs are the key drivers of the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut in September

Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist at Canadian financial firm Desjardins, said Canada's GDP data performance is mixed Half. After careful study, this report does not mean that the recession will begin in the second quarter. But this does not mean that the domestic economy will not be under more pressure in the subsequent quarter. The current problems are indeed uniquely concentrated in the export sector. The unexpected upward inflation in the latest report, coupled with the recent counter-tariff cuts, together with the news of a recent counter-tariff cut, these factors together constitute a strong reason for restarting interest rate cuts in September.

2. Institutions: The RBA may postpone interest rate cuts due to the July CPI exceeding expectations

Fixed income analyst Magdalene Teo, a fixed income analyst at Swiss Bosson Bank, said that the RBA may delay its interest rate cuts after the unexpected high CPI readings in July. The bank believes that the electricity bill reduction policies and summer holidays that expired by New South Wales and the country's capital territories in August and the summer holidays are being consumed. The surge in inflation driven by the peak of the Fee may be temporary. Inflation is expected to fall back to the lower range of the RBA's target range of 2%-3%. Nevertheless, the volatility of the index supports the RBA's position of slowing down interest rates to avoid repeated inflation. Teo pointed out that the market expects the possibility of a rate cut in September and there will be up to two more interest rates by the end of the year.

3. Analysts: Switzerland is expected to maintain zero interest rates by the end of the year with a high threshold for restarting negative interest rates

Institutional analyst Robert Howard said that as long as the euro/cherry franc remains above 0.92, the Swiss National Bank seems to maintain policy interest rates at zero in September and December. Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Martin said this week that vifu.netpared with previous cuts of interest rates from positive values, the central bank The threshold for pushing interest rates back into the negative range in the future will be higher. Martin also pointed out that the recent weakening of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is unlikely to have a significant impact on Swiss inflation (the US dollar/CHF fell to a 10-year low in early July). Swiss August inflation data will be released next Thursday (September 4), three weeks away from the next Swiss central bank interest rate resolution. Swiss CPI rose slightly in July to 0.2% year-on-year, higher than 0.1% in June and -0.1% in May. The euro/CHF has not touched the 0.92 mark since January 2015, and the most recent approach to this key support level was in April.

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