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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: US GDP first invites Shuangjia but cannot save the US dollar!, PCE becomes the last hope of the longs tonight?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, and rebounded during the session due to better than expected US GDP and initial data. As of now, the US dollar price is 97.97.
Feder
① Cook officially sued Trump for the dismissal storm, and Powell became the defendant. Cook's lawyers say the mortgage dispute may have arisen due to "documental errors."
② A US judge is scheduled to hold a hearing on Cook's prosecution of Trump this Friday. The judge is nominated by Biden and is expected to be finalized in the Supreme Court.
③Milan, Trump's nominee for Fed director, is expected to be confirmed before the Fed's September resolution.
④ Federal Reserve Director Waller: Support the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September, and it is expected that further interest rate cuts will be cut in the next 3-6 months.
⑤ IMF Second vifu.netmander: The market still believes in the independence of the Federal Reserve, but the actual risks cannot be ignored.
⑥ European Central Bank Management vifu.netmittee Renne: Trump's pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve may have a significant global impact on the financial market and the real economy.
*Tariffs
① The EU has proposed a legislative proposal to cancel tariffs on some US goods to promote the US to reduce automobile tariffs.
②Without fearing the threat of US tariffs, India's Russian oil imports are expected to increase by 10% to 20% month-on-month in September.
③U.S. officials: Sent to the United States within the next six monthsThe country's parcels will be subject to a uniform tariff of between $80 and $200, which will be subject to a specific tariff rate thereafter.
*State in Russia and Ukraine
① German Chancellor Mertz: Zelensky and Putin will not meet.
②US media: Europe proposes to set up a 40-kilometer front-line buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine.
>U.S. President Trump considers convening a national Republican convention before the midterm elections.
>The UK, France and Germany restart the process of imposing UN sanctions on Iran, and the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on Friday.
>Israel attacked Sanaa, Yemen, and it is reported that the target was a senior Houthi politician.
Deutsche Bank: The central bank of the Philippines seems to be about to end the easing cycle
Research analysts at vifu.netmerzbank wrote in a report that the central bank of the Philippines seems to be approaching the end of its easing cycle. They said the central bank's tone on Thursday was less gentle than previous meetings. The president has already suggested that there is a possibility of another rate cut this year. Analysts said inflation is expected to remain stable, well below the central bank's target range of 2%-4%. "This is unlikely to be a constraint on monetary easing for the rest of the year." vifu.netmerzbank Research expects the Philippines central bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points by the end of the year.
Standard Chartered: The average monthly growth of the non-farm population in the United States must reach X,000 to keep the unemployment rate stable
Our statistics show that even if we consider the recent decline in the number of immigrants in the United States and to maintain the stable unemployment rate, the monthly balanced growth of the new non-farm employment population announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will reach 170,000. Recently, investors and Fed policy makers vifu.netpeted to lower their estimates of balanced employment growth, even showing expectations of 50,000 or less. But they all overlooked the fact that a large part of the official new non-agricultural population is not based on sampling surveys, does not contain behavioral vifu.netponents, and is pre-set, so there is a high possibility of error.
According to our calculations, the actual monthly average data of the new non-agricultural population in the United States this year is only about 70,000. Investors and policy makers who blindly accept official data may exacerbate hawkish bias in monetary policy expectations. This overestimation stems from the birth-death adjustment model adopted by BLS, which is based on autoregressive models that ignore subsequent changes in the labor market after preset at the beginning of the year and is increasingly out of touch with the actual count of vifu.net business openings to create jobs.
If the non-agricultural data is interpreted mechanically, the existing private enterprises will still only add 25,000 new jobs per month since 2024, while vifu.net newly established enterprises will contribute more than 100,000 jobs per month. This contradicts the Business Employment Dynamics (BDM) data, which is considered the gold standard: BDM shows that vifu.net business openings account for only 20% of total employment creation in 2024. More importantly, BDM data shows that the number of jobs created by vifu.net enterprise openings has dropped much more than the NFP data.
If this is used as the standard to adjust, the birth-death adjustment reflects the same decline, then the monthly non-agricultural new growth will beThe population should be reduced to 70,000. This is also our belief that BLS announced that the average monthly increase in non-agricultural population needs to reach 170,000 to maintain the equilibrium of the labor market, of which 100,000 corresponds to the population structure and real employment growth driven by immigration, while 70,000 is a data deviation.
But it should be noted that the slowdown in new jobs did not occur after the 2024 US election. The trend has appeared in early 2023 and continued to 2024. BDM data has stabilized at a low level at the beginning of 2024, while the 2025 NFP sampling data shows that the employment growth of existing vifu.netpanies is still weak. Although employment has not seen any accelerated deterioration since January 2025, there is no sign of a better trend in weakness.
UBS: The weak performance of French debt may be exacerbated by..., and corporate debt may be safer?
Recently, French politics has once again fallen into a familiar political crisis. Prime Minister François Baru may suffer a loss in the Sept. 8 vote of confidence due to an unpopular budget cut plan - the opposition has made it clear that it will vote against it a few days ago. According to its proposal, France needs to implement spending cuts of 44 billion euros to ease the pressure on budget deficits of up to 5.8% of GDP last year. Baru said that if the government fails to obtain enough support, President Macron will not consider disbanding the National Assembly again. So far this week, the French CAC40 index has fallen by more than 3.3%, and bank stocks have become the main factor dragging the index. The spread of the 10-year treasury bond yields has also widened to 77 basis points, close to its highest level in nearly four months, reflecting the rise in France's debt risk premium and the transfer of funds to German safe assets.
In our forecast, if a budget that can effectively reduce the high deficit is not passed, it may accelerate the risk of negative adjustments in France's credit ratings. We maintain our previous forecast that at least one rating agency will downgrade France's sovereign debt rating. Losing high ratings is likely to exacerbate the weak performance of French bonds. If the Baru government falls, France may face the appointment of a new prime minister or an early election; but both results are expected to be difficult to resolve fiscal challenges. For global investors, we still recommend preferring some investment-grade corporate bonds in the region over sovereign debts, with mid-term varieties around five years providing considerable risk-adjusted returns.
Bernberg, Germany: The tail risks in the United States have increased significantly. What crisis will the impaired central bank independence bring?
The United States' food will still exceed 6% of its GDP in the next few years. The dollar's former safe-haven status and its global reserve currency once kept the United States financing at low interest rates, but the erosion of global market trust in the Federal Reserve and the capricious policies of the Trump administration are experiencing such privileges. We believe that the fiscal policy it promotes is unsustainable, and the "bond police" will eventually force U.S. policy to increase taxes by pushing up long-term yields. Although there is no need to worry about a financial crisis in the United States in the short term, the tail risks have risen significantly.
At present, the long-term inflation expectations of the United States are stable at 2.1%-2In the .5% range, but persistent high inflation levels may lead to long-term expectations dean and rise to 3%. As of the time when the Fed may need Volcker-style interest rate hikes, it has rebuild its credibility. The more the Fed obeys political pressure, the higher the likelihood of long-term inflation expectations rising. The lessons learned from historical experience are vivid. Nixon put pressure on Burns to maintain policy interest rates at a low level in 1972, resulting in hyperinflation in the United States in the late 1970s. After the Turkish president replaced the president with interest rate hikes, the lira plummeted by 50% and inflation soared to more than 60%. All of these cases warn that the independence of the central bank is crucial to the market and the country.
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