Five major events to happen in the global market this week

Will Peace return to the old continent? It may take time, but Trump Putin's summit in Alaska has undoubtedly attracted widespread attention. Every percentage point in the U.S. inflation data is crucial for the market – and there is more vifu.netrmation vifu.neting.

1. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates, which may imply that the next move will be waiting

Tuesday, GMT 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates for the third time. The Sydney-based agency is slow to start reducing borrowing costs.

The recent weakness in Australia's inflation data has consolidated expectations for an upcoming decision. However, President Michelle Brock and colleagues will reiterate that they will stick to a gradual approach that could boost the Australian dollar (AUD).

2. U.S. inflation data may reflect the tariff impact more meaningfully

Tuesday, GMT 12:30. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July is a major release this week, which may trigger significant market fluctuations.

In June, the core CPI excluding volatile energy and food prices rose moderately by 0.2%, which seemed to continue to indicate a stable price increase. However, the underlying data suggests that there is a gap between the continued slowdown in service costs and the slight acceleration in vifu.netmodity inflation, especially imported products.

The impact of tariffs may be more pronounced in the upcoming July report. A 0.3% rise in core CPI will hit market expectations of the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year.

What reaction can be expected? High inflation could boost the dollar while suppressing stocks and gold. This may also trigger the anger of President Trump, who insistsSay there is no inflation.

A less hot report will strengthen the Fed's view that interest rates will be cut at each meeting by the end of the year. This will also put pressure on the dollar while boosting stocks and gold.

3. US manufacturer prices will improve inflation picture

Thursday, GMT 12:30. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) report provides additional inflation vifu.netrmation and forms the calculation part of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data released later this month. PCE is the Fed's preferred price increase indicator.

In June, the overall and core PPI remained the same, indicating that the price pressure at the factory gate was softer. Will it rise this time? The market's response will be similar to the CPI - although limited and short-lived. PPI data vifu.netpetes with another release (see below).

4. The continued unemployment benefits application in the United States may trigger more attention to the labor market

Thursday, GMT 12:30. U.S. initial unemployment benefits applications have been receiving market attention, but they fail to reflect recent weakness in the labor market, as shown in the non-farm employment data.

On the other hand, the number of applicants for continued unemployment benefits has been rising, steadily approaching the two million mark.

Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time is relatively small, the number of people who continue to receive benefits is increasing.

As with other data released simultaneously, if the PPI and the number of applicants change in the same direction, the impact on the market will be greater, and the offset numbers will only trigger volatility but lack vitality in price trends.

5. US retail sales will test the resilience of American consumers

Friday, GMT 12:30. About two-thirds of the U.S. economy is consumption-centric, making these data releases important, although they are volatile.

Overall sales in June rose a satisfactory 0.6% after falling 0.9% in May. Will the United States report a decline in July? This ups and downs may continue, but there are risks to bets on resilience for American consumers. Despite uncertainty, credit card vifu.netpanies remain calm about U.S. consumption.

6. The Trump-Putin summit may not lead to a ceasefire

Friday, later. U.S. President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska, the first meeting in the U.S. since 1988.

The main topic of the agenda is the Russian war in Ukraine, which has lasted for nearly three and a half years. At the time of writing, Ukrainian President Zelensky will not travel to the remote area.

Zelensky and European leaders urged Trump to include them in the negotiations and not agree to any territorial concessions without Kiev's consent. It is unclear how things will go, and it is unclear whether a ceasefire will be reached. Moscow had previously suggested an air ceasefire.

The ceasefire will boost the euro, especially for construction vifu.netpanies that may benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction. National Defense vifu.netpanyAnd oil stocks will fall – as Russian crude oil will be able to flow globally more freely.

A partial ceasefire or lack of substantial results will have the opposite effect.

Both Trump and Putin may be unpredictable, and reports on potential agreements—whether correct or not—could be emerging in the week.

In addition to the volatility around the Alaska summit, the reaction to inflation data may be difficult to predict. The market may hope the Fed can see through the inflation triggered by tariffs at some point, which could reverse any reaction to rising inflation. Trading with caution.

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