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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: "Tep Club" finalizes Alaska! The White House clarifies gold bar tariffs". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 11, during the Asian market on Monday, spot gold trading was around $3,394.20 per ounce, and the US price rose by limited last Friday. Although previous reports of Trump imposing tariffs on gold bars caused the gold price to rise to the level of 3,408.71, after the White House clarified its position on gold bar tariffs, the gold price quickly returned below 3,400; US crude oil trading was around $63.56 per ounce, Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet on Friday, and the market will focus on the results of the meeting between the two sides.
The dollar strengthened last Friday, but traders priced more interest rate cuts this year as weak economic data led to traders pricing the possibility of more rate cuts this year, while investors are also evaluating President Trump's nomination for the Fed, which fell weekly.
The US dollar has fallen since the July employment report released showed that employers increased fewer than expected jobs in the month, and the employment growth rate in the previous months was also significantly lowered. Other data, including weak real estate market and service industry data, also indicate that the economy is slowing down.
Meanwhile, Trump said on Thursday that he would nominate Milan, chairman of the Economic Advisory Board, to fill the final months of a Fed directorship, while the White House will seek permanent members of the Fed's board of directors and continue to search for new candidates for the Fed's chairmanship.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Fed Governor Waller, who voted for the rate cut at the last Fed meeting, is becoming a popular candidate for Powell's next chairman after his term ended in May.
Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said: "This makes the FOMC'sPeople may be more inclined to cut interest rates. The impression is that the Fed may turn to rate cuts faster than the market had previously expected, especially based on expectations before last week. There may even be speculation that the Fed's interest rate cut may be greater than we had expected. "
Traders now believe that the Fed's chances of cutting interest rates at its September meeting are 89%, with a 58 basis point cut by the end of the year. Trump also fired a senior Labor Department official after a weak jobs report, raising concerns that the Trump administration could have a greater impact on the release of economic data.
The market is widely expected to announce a rate cut on the RBA on Tuesday, with market strategist Michael McCarthy noting that bank note traders are even pricing a rate cut that exceeds 25 basis points. But he stressed that many analysts have overlooked a key point: the RBA is not Meaning that interest rate cuts will surely be implemented. While the core inflation rate of 2.7% provides room for policy adjustments for the central bank, the 4.3% unemployment rate suggests that the RBA is not facing pressing pressure to cut rates. McCarthy warned that if the bank accidentally kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, it could have a significant impact on stocks.
Bank of England chief economist Hugh Peel said that if changes in long-term inflation dynamics persist, the central bank may need to reconsider its steady pace of easing. In a briefing to business leaders, Peel admitted inflation pressures may continue to ease, but warned that price and wage setting behaviors “could delay further policy easing.”
"This could lead us to...question whether the speed at which we lower bank interest rates is...sustainable," he said, referring to the 25 basis point pace that the Bank of England has maintained in the quarterly rate cuts over the past year.
Pierre's vifu.netments helped clarify the reasons behind Thursday's unexpected 5-4 policy vote, with him and three other members opposing a 25 basis point cut to 4.00%. Most, including Gov. Andrew Bailey, favored continuing the easing policy. But this split exposed growing concerns within the monetary policy vifu.netmittee about the risks of stickier inflation. Peel said more hawkish voters are focused on upside risks driven by behavioral shifts, rather than overall inflation itself.
Traders have now postponed expectations for the next rate cut, and futures are no longer fully priced at 25 basis points before February. Peel's remarks are strong
The Canadian labor market fell unexpectedly in July, reducing -40.8 jobs, while an expected increase of 15.3. This decline was caused by a sharp decline in full-time employment (-51k) and offset the strong growth of 83k in June. Overall employment growth has stagnated, with only 27 jobs rising since January. However, the unemployment rate stabilized at 6.9%, slightly better than expected 7.0%.
Despite overall unemployment, average hourly wages rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, slightly higher than 3.2% in June. Total working hours fell slightly by -0.2% month-on-month, indicating that the overall labor output momentum remained flat. Mixed signals—a sharp drop in full-time jobs and a rise in wages—paints a vifu.netplex picture for policy makers.
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