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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: Rare disagreement votes trigger the pound, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 8". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.30%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.35%. The German DAX index rose 0.04%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.09%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.20%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.16%.
⑴ After the second round of voting was held in the Bank of England's interest rate meeting, the pound hit a two-week high against the US dollar, and the pound also strengthened against the euro. ⑵ Although the Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate to 4%, four of the nine policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating that the pace of monetary easing will be more cautious in the future. ⑶ The market priced the probability that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next month at 93%, indicating that traders believe that the possibility of another rate cut in the short term is very small. ⑷ Some analysts pointed out that although the direction of interest rates is still downward, the Bank of England's concerns about the sustained inflation are increasing, which makes the timing of the next rate cut uncertain. ⑸These factors worked together to drive the pound to rise 1.3% this week, the largest single-day gain in 11 weeks, indicating that the market's interpretation of the Bank of England's future policy path is changing.
Data shows that a key driver of US refiners' profitability - the ability to buy heavy crude oil at low prices -— Will improve in the second half of this year as crude oil production in Canada and the Middle East is gradually recovering. In addition to the demand for core fuel products, refiners also need cost-effective raw materials. Many refiners, especially refineries on the Gulf Coast, have renovated their plants to process more discounted heavy crude oil, or to switch between light and heavy crude oil more easily. This shift makes the price spread between the two crude oils a highly-watched indicator of refiners' profitability. Marathon Oil Chief vifu.netmercial Officer Rick? "We expect the spread of (heavy and light crude) to widen in the second half of this year," Hesling said on a conference call this week. One unexpected source of heavy crude oil return to the market is California. Drillers in the state said Democratic Governor Gavin? Newsom's recent regulatory adjustments could revive oil drilling activities.
Turkey Airlines disclosed in regulatory documents on the 7th that it plans to submit a binding minority investment offer to Europa Airways. The decision was made after previous non-binding negotiations and internal feasibility studies. Turkish Airlines said the deal is intended to expand its Latin American operations.
Germany will stop delivering military equipment that can be used in the Gaza Strip operation to Israel, a move that is out of concern about the humanitarian suffering in the region. German Chancellor Merz said that the delivery of spare parts for tanks and other defense-related items will continue to be banned until further notice. This decision is an important step for Germany, which has been one of Israel's most determined supporters. Mertz reiterated that Israel has the right to defend itself, but he questioned whether further attacks on Gaza would help Israel achieve its goal of defeating Hamas.
⑴ Swiss Textile Association said that the 39% tariff imposed by the United States on Swiss imported goods has caused huge damage to the country's textile industry. ⑵This tariff rate far exceeds the worst-case scenario of 31% that experts had expected, which caught the industry off guard. ⑶ Last year, the Swiss textile and garment industry's exports to the United States reached 64 million Swiss francs, and the United States was its fifth largest export market. ⑷The new tariffs will seriously weaken the vifu.netpetitiveness of Swiss vifu.netpanies and put them in a more disadvantageous situation than vifu.netpetitors in other countries. ⑸ The Swiss Textile Association has called on the government to continue dialogue with the United States and strengthen relations with other trading partners such as the EU to deal with this severe challenge.
⑴ Some institutional analysts said that Germany's GDP contraction of 0.1% in the second quarter may be further reduced. ⑵This concern stems from the June industrial output data, which shows that German industrial production shrank by 1.9% month-on-month. ⑶New data shows that the number of previously considered minor setbacksThe economic decline in the second quarter may actually be a more serious reversal. ⑷ Nevertheless, relatively optimistic survey data in July prompted the agency to raise its third-quarter GDP forecast from flat to 0.1%. ⑸ The report also pointed out that Germany's retail sales achieved a fifth consecutive quarter of growth in the second quarter, indicating that consumer spending is recovering, which brings a glimmer of hope for future economic recovery.
⑴ Data shows that the trading volume of German Treasury futures contracts in September was only 217,000, the lowest level in the same period since the launch in early June. ⑵This trading volume is about 40% lower than the average level in the past 10 days, showing that the market trading sentiment is extremely light. ⑶ At the same time, the German Treasury Options market is also inactive, with trading volume of only 12,400 shares, far below the 10-day average of 100,000 shares. ⑷The trading volume on Thursday was only 34,900, which was also at a low level, indicating that the market was not accidental. ⑸ This continued low trading volume may indicate that investors are generally on the wait-and-see attitude before key economic data and central bank decisions are announced, and the market may be accumulating the energy for the next wave of large fluctuations.
⑴ On the last trading day of this week, U.S. market data and Treasury activities were relatively calm. ⑵ The market focus will be on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Mousalem, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. ⑶Musalem, as the voting vifu.netmittee of the 2025 Federal Open Market vifu.netmittee (FOMC), has a hawkish position, so his remarks deserve close attention from the market. ⑷ His speech was "Financial Health in the Delta: Dialogue on Banks, Credit and Small Businesses", and he may express his views on the regional economic situation and monetary policy. ⑸ Although no important economic data was released on that day, Mousalem's speech may still provide clues to the market about the future direction of monetary policy and trigger market fluctuations.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1648.The decline was 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (Euro-USD) settled with a strong gain in the last intraday trading, attacking the stubborn significant resistance of 1.1670, and a strong bull market wave dominated on a short-term basis, supported by trading above the EMA50, indicating the continuation of positive momentum.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3425, a drop of 0.14%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose in the last intraday trading, supported by the intraday correction wave, using its positive pressure to trade above the EMA50 to test the resistance of the main bearish trend line on a short-term basis, accompanied by the overbought level, indicating that the bullish correction trend has been exhausted, indicating the beginning of a negative rebound, with the goal of obtaining positive momentum and restoring the trading balance.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3392.00, a drop of 0.09%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day after hitting the main resistance of $3,400, which represents our potential target in the previous report. This decline is due to the stability of this resistance, trying to gain positive momentum that may allow it to break through this level.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.298, an increase of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell in the last trade at the intraday level, negative signals appeared on the (RSI), trying to get rid of its apparent overbought state to collect its positive power that could help it recover and rise again, dominance of the main bullish trend and its movement within a small volatility range, indicating the dominance of this trend, using the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50 to strengthen the positive momentum around the price.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 64.150, an increase of 0.45%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price closed sharply in the last session. Due to the continued impact of its negative pressure stabilized below the EMA50, it is still dominated by a small bearish wave in the short term, moving along the bearish bias line, indicating the intensity of the dominant negative momentum.
JPMorgan Chase strategist said that if Trump successfully appoints key members of the Fed, the U.S. Treasury yield curve may steep from its highest level in four years. After Trump chose Stephen Milan, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council, as the Federal Reserve Director, the United States The difference between the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields widened on Thursday. The appointment requires Senate approval. "Milan has always believed that the Trump administration's trade, immigration and deregulation policies are anti-inflation," wrote an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, led by Jay Barry, in a note released late Thursday. "To some extent, this supports a more modest Fed policy and a steeper curve that appeared this afternoon. ”
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