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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The position of Fed director falls into Trump's "new national teacher", and gold prices rise to the highest level in more than two weeks." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 8, during the trading session in Asia on Friday, spot gold trading was around $3,400 per ounce, gold prices rose to the highest level on Thursday, US President Trump's tariffs came into effect, and U.S. employment data strengthened interest rate cut expectations, boosted safe-haven demand; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.86 per barrel, and oil prices fell for the sixth consecutive trading day on Thursday, after the Kremlin said Russian President Putin would meet with U.S. President Trump in the next few days, thus raising expectations for ending the Ukrainian war through diplomatic channels.
The dollar rose Thursday after Bloomberg News reported that Fed Governor Waller was becoming a popular candidate for the Fed chairman of the Trump presidential team. Waller has met with members of Trump’s team, who are impressed by him, but he has not met with the president yet, according to Bloomberg.
Trump has criticized the current Fed Chairman Powell, whose term will end in May, for being too slow in cutting interest rates, and some investors are worried that his successor will not act independently of the Trump administration.
Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said Waller is highly respected in financial markets and central bank circles, and his appointment will have a positive impact on the dollar. "He is considered to be inclined to adopt a loose policy, but he has enough credibility to stabilize long-term yields and effectively support the inflow of the dollar." Trump said Tuesday that he has narrowed the candidate for the new Fed chairman to four, including National Economic vifu.netmission Director Hassett, former Federal Reserve Director, Trump supporter Valsh and two others. Trump did not name the people, but one of themPeople are considered Waller.
Trump said on Wednesday that he will nominate White House Economic Advisory vifu.netmittee Chairman Milan to vifu.netplete the remainder of Federal Reserve Director Coogler.
Bank of Japan's opinion from July 30 to 31 shows that the Bank of Japan is generally cautious about future policy measures, and members stressed that more data is needed before changing directions.
Despite a recent U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, board members reiterated that Japan's baseline outlook has not improved. "Japan's economic growth will slow and the improvement of basic CPI inflation will be temporarily slow. Therefore, the consensus is to maintain current interest rates and financial easing while monitoring trade risks and external demand. "It will take at least two to three months to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policy," one member said, noting that the direction of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rate may also change significantly based on inflation and labor conditions.
Nevertheless, the door to rate hikes later this year is now open. The summary shows that if upcoming data shows that the U.S. economy is resilient and Japan avoids major trade impacts, the Bank of Japan may resume policy normalization as soon as possible by the end of the year.
A policymaker said: "The central bank may withdraw from its current wait-and-see position as early as the end of this year. If inflation and growth are consistent, this prospect opens the door to further rate hikes by the end of 2025.
The Bank of England implemented a 25 basis point rate cut that was generally expected by the market, lowering bank interest rates to 4.00%, and continuing its cautious easing cycle. However, a minority of hawkish four including chief economists Huw Pill, Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli and Catherine Mann voted to keep interest rates unchanged, reflecting ongoing concerns over lingering inflationary pressures.
Governor Andrew Bailey supported the rate cut with a majority of five members, and no member supported a larger rate cut (Alan Taylor voted in the first round to lower the bank interest rate by 50 basis points, but changed to 25 basis points in the second round to avoid holding back). This shows that while easing continues, the Bank of England is far from taking a more radical path to cut interest rates.
The Bank of England's latest forecast shows that inflation is expected to rise temporarily, reaching a peak of around 4.0% in September, and then falling back to its 2% target. However, the Monetary Policy vifu.netmittee noted that the upside risk of medium-term inflation has “slightly higher” since May, citing concerns that temporary price increases may consolidate wage and pricing behavior. This inflationary vigilance may explain the hawkish vote split and the ongoing boycott of early rate cuts.
In terms of growth, the Monetary Policy vifu.netmittee noted, basic GDP is "still sluggish" and labor market is weak. Despite the persistence of domestic and global uncertainty, the vifu.netmission acknowledged that trade policy risks have “reduced” – an endorsement of tensions following the recent British-U.S. tariff agreement.
Even the economic momentum weakens, the Monetary Policy vifu.netmittee insists that the policy is “not on the pre-set path” and emphasizes a “gradual and cautious approach” to further easing policies
The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. increased by 7 to 226 in the week ending August 2, higher than expected 220. The four-week moving average for the first-time unemployment benefits application fell by -500 to 221k.
The number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits increased by 380,000 to 19.74 million in the week ended July 26, 2021, the highest level since November 6, 2021. The four-week moving average of the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits rose by 5k to 1952k.
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