US dollar index fell, senior Fed officials expressed support for short-term interest rate cuts

On August 7, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.25. On Wednesday, the dollar index fell, dragged down by a speech by Fed officials, and finally closed down 0.56% to 98.17. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.232%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.72%. As investors took profit after the gold price hit a nearly two-week high in the previous trading day, spot gold fell back and stopped four consecutive gains, falling below the $3360 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.35%, closing at $3368.97/ounce, hitting a high in the past two weeks; spot silver was basically flat, and finally closed up 0.05% to $37.809/ounce. International crude oil fell for the fifth consecutive trading day as Trump's vifu.netments on U.S.-Russia talks sparked uncertainty over the U.S.-imposed new sanctions on Russia. WTI crude oil fell below the $64 mark and finally closed down 1.48% to $63.6 per barrel, a two-month low; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.36% to $66.43 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.25. Market sentiment is affected by a vifu.netbination of multiple factors, including expectations of progress in the Fed’s nomination, Trump’s recent remarks about tariffs, and weak U.S. economic data. The US dollar index shows signs of oversold technology, but fundamental uncertainty still dominates market sentiment. This article will vifu.netbine the latest market trends to deeply analyze the current trend of the US dollar index from the two dimensions of fundamentals and technical aspects, and make an outlook on future trends. Technically, the closest support level of the US dollar index is at 98.00–98.20 range. A break below the 98.00 level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level 97.10–97.30.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1654. The euro/dollar rose more than 0.50% on Wednesday as traders began to expect the Fed to cut interest rates and the dollar generally weakened. In addition, with U.S. President Trump saying he would nominate Fed Director Adrianna Coogler's successor, market concerns about the Fed's independence have intensified, and Kugler will resign on August 8. . Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3350. On Wednesday, the pound/USD fluctuated narrowly near the 1.3300 mark, and the exchange rate consolidation continued for several days, and the market entered a typical waiting mode before news. Traders' focus is on two major events this week: the Bank of England's interest rate decision and potential policy direction changes brought about by personnel changes in the Federal Reserve. Technically, the successful test of resistance level 1.3370–1.3390 will push GBP/USD to the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold hovered near 3372.2. The market is evaluating the latest developments in geopolitics and tariffs. On the one hand, Trump said he "probably" will meet with Russian President Putin in the near future to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian issue, which may weaken the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, a move that could exacerbate U.S.-India trade tensions. "The next few hours and days may play a key role in shaping the dynamics of the gold market."

Technical: From the daily chart, gold prices are currently running between the middle and upper rails of the Bollinger Band, slightly higher than the middle rail level of $3344.86, and are still in the high oscillation range as a whole. The Bollinger band bandwidth has not narrowed significantly, indicating that market volatility is still in a relatively neutral range. Gold prices have hit the upper track several times recently but failed, with the previous highs of $3451.14 and $3438.80 already formingto form a significant resistance band. The support below is located near $3276.39, which is the lower rail of the Bollinger Band, which forms a secondary defensive area with the previous low of $3120.64. Judging from the MACD indicator, the DIFF line is slightly higher than the DEA line, and the color of the bar chart has just turned red, indicating that the gold price has the intention to try to rebound in the short term, but the momentum is still insufficient, and it is still necessary to observe whether the effective "golden cross" will be formed in the future. If the bar chart continues to expand in volume, it may be a short-term upward signal. The RSI indicator (14th) is currently at 53.22, in a relatively strong neutral area, and there is no obvious signal of overbought and oversold in the short term. Overall, the technical side is showing a rather volatile pattern, and the breakthrough direction still needs further confirmation.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 63.85. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week indicated demand remained strong, which could help limit WTI losses. The U.S. Energy vifu.netrmation Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.029 million barrels in the week ended August 1, vifu.netpared with an increase of 7.698 million barrels the previous week. Market consensus estimates inventory will drop by 1.1 million barrels.

Technical: WTI crude oil futures prices rose slightly, trying to recover their previous declines, benefiting from the key support level of US$64.85, bringing certain upward action energy to the price. Especially with the emergence of positive signals, prices are still under negative pressure from trading below EMA50, and are also affected by a slight bearish wave in the short term.

Forex market trading reminder on August 7, 2025

19:00Bank of England announces interest rate resolution and meeting minutes

19:30Bank of England Governor Bailey holds a press conference

20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to August 2

22:00 US wholesale sales monthly rate in June

22:00 US Federal Reserve Bostic participated in the fireside conversation online

22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to August 1

23:00 US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations in July

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