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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The new Fed Chairman may soon announce that the US dollar index will remain fluctuating." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 6, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.73. On Tuesday, the US dollar index maintained range fluctuations, falling shortly after the release of the US service industry PMI data, erasing most of the intraday gains, and finally closed slightly higher by 0.02% to 98.727. U.S. Treasury yields generally rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 4.218%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closing at 3.739%. Spot gold broke out of a V-shaped reversal, hitting the $3390 mark during the session, and finally closed up 0.22%, closing at $3380.86/ounce, hitting a high in the past two weeks; spot silver rose for the third consecutive day, finally closing up 1.06% to $37.81/ounce. International crude oil continues to be under pressure as traders worry about the prospect of imbalance in supply and demand in the oil market. WTI crude oil fell below the $65 mark and finally closed down 1.64% to $64.59/barrel, hitting a five-week low; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.52% to $67.49/barrel.
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.73. The short-term outlook for the dollar remains bearish, dragged by weak labor data, increased expectations for the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Going forward, the market will closely monitor for upcoming vifu.netments by Fed officials later this week, which could provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy path at its September meeting. Technically, if the US dollar index remains below 98.82MA of 50, it will move towards the nearest support level, i.e., in the 98.00–98.20 range.
Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1575. ?Over the Atlantic, HCOB flash PMI data performed in a mixed manner across the EU, but failed to push the euro higher against the dollar. The U.S. economic schedule will feature a Fed spokesman, and traders look forward to Susan Collins of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Lisa Cook, and Mary Daley of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Meanwhile, industrial orders in Germany and retail sales in the EU are expected to provide clues to the economic situation in the euro zone. Technically, if the test is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700.
GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3302. U.S. labor data experienced a sharp cut in the second quarter, rekindling hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns about a heightened recession. Now that the Fed rate cut on September 17 has been considered a foregone conclusion, the pound market has turned its focus to the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. The Bank of England Monetary Policy vifu.netmittee (MPC) is expected to support a 25 basis point cut with a seven-to-three vote. Technically, RSI is in a mild area, so if the right catalyst appears, there is a lot of room to get extra power. If GBP/USD closes above 1.3300, it will move towards resistance levels 1.3370–1.3390.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3384.11. The rise in the gold market is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, inflationary pressure caused by tariffs and personnel changes of the Federal Reserve. In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain strong under the support of safe-haven demand and interest rate cut expectations, and the recent high of $3,390 per ounce may be broken. However, if the U.S. August inflation data released next week is lower than expected or the Fed's personnel changes are unexpected, gold prices may face the risk of a correction. In the long run, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold, and Trump's trade policy and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be key variables. Investors need to pay close attention to expected changes in CPI data, progress in trade negotiations and Fed appointments, pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials, and seize investment opportunities in the gold market.
Technical: Spot gold is difficult to continue the rebound momentum of last week, and its current price is hovering around $3,350. Last week, gold broke below the rising triangle pattern and gained support above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) after briefly hitting a one-month low, indicating that bears still lack confidence. Currently, gold prices are slightly higher than the 50-day SMA, which constitutes direct support, followed by the 100-day SMA. If prices fall further, the next target could be around $3275 and $3200. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is located in the neutral area around 55, indicating a lack of clear momentum. At the same time, in the MACD indicator, on DIFFA golden cross through DEA and the MACD column is positive, indicating that the bulls are accumulating, but the overall value is not high, and the upward momentum needs to be further released. If the golden cross continues and the column is enlarged, it is beneficial to the bulls. On the upside, if the bulls can recover the broken triangle bottom and decisively push it above $3,380, it is possible to move towards $3,450 and may even hit an all-time high again.
On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 64.63. Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with increased OPEC+ supply and concerns about weak global demand overshadowed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to India’s purchase of Russian oil. Investors need to pay close attention to expected changes in CPI data, progress in trade negotiations and Fed appointments, and pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials.
Technical: WTI crude oil futures prices rose slightly, trying to regain their previous declines, benefiting from the key support level of US$64.85, bringing certain upward action energy to the price. Especially with the emergence of positive signals, prices are still under negative pressure from trading below EMA50, and are also affected by a slight bearish wave in the short term.
①17:00 Eurozone June retail sales monthly rate
②22:00 US July global supply chain pressure index
③22:30 US to August 1 EIA crude oil inventories in the week of EIA to August 1
④22:30 US to August 1 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week of EIA to August 1
⑤22:30 US to August 1 EIA strategic oil reserve inventory
⑥ The next day 01:00 US to August 6 10-year Treasury bond auction-winning interest rate
⑦ The next day, 01:00 US to August 6, 10-year Treasury bond auction - bid multiple
⑧ The next day, 02:00 US Federal Reserve Collins delivered a speech on the United States and the global economy
⑨ The next day, 02:00 US Federal Reserve Director Cook delivered a speech on the United States and the global economy
⑩ The next day, 04:10 US Federal Reserve Daly delivered a speech
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