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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Trump's tariff storm escalates, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 5." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.01%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.29%. The German DAX index rose 0.77%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.54%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.21%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.34%.
⑴India is also quickly becoming the target of Trump's tariff remarks and trade policies. ⑵ According to Japan's Nomura Securities, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which may cause India's GDP growth rate to drop by 0.2 percentage points this fiscal year from 6.2%. ⑶ Trump's criticism of India's purchase of Russian crude oil has made India-US relations increasingly tense. ⑷ Although India argues that buying cheap Russian crude oil is a "national necessity", its 2.1% consumer price inflation has hit a new low since January 2019, and the domestic impact of abandoning Russian discounted crude oil has been limited. ⑸ However, India's long-term partnership with Russia is not limited to oil, but also about its foreign policy, which has kept India's relationship with the United States a certain distance.
Convera strategist George Vessey said in a report that options traders are cutting bets on pound-to-dollar declines ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.Vessey said that although the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates, it is expected to maintain guidance for gradual rate cuts due to rising inflation. London Stock Exchange data showed that the one-month risk reversal index of pound sterling rose to -0.463% from last Friday's low -0.785. This suggests that demand for put options (betting down) is weakening. Many economists expect a further rate cut this year or two after this week, but some expect the cut on Thursday will be the last.
The prospects for bonuses on Wall Street have improved. As the market recovers, bonuses in most areas of the financial industry are expected to grow. Investment bankers, hedge fund employees and asset managers are expected to receive higher year-end bonuses in 2025 after a weak start to the year, according to a new report released by vifu.netpensation consulting firm Johnson Associates Inc. on Tuesday. This is in contrast to expectations earlier this year, when bonus expectations were expected to drop due to weak business activity due to U.S. trade war and geopolitical tensions. “This year will end with an overall positive trend, which is very different from what we thought three or four months ago,” said Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, in an interview. "The financial services industry performed quite well, and in some cases benefited from market volatility and rising markets." The new forecast came as Wall Street performed optimistically in the second quarter, with record trading revenues, and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax policies drove a surge in trading activity in the stock market. This volatility has stimulated trading demand and could result in a maximum growth of 30% for stock traders' bonuses this year. The report notes that fixed income traders' bonuses may also increase, but the increase is relatively modest, expected to be between 10% and 20%.
According to the Global Times, the Australian government announced on the same day that it had accepted the bidding plan of Japanese vifu.netpany Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and would purchase 11 "top" new frigates from Japan, with a total amount of approximately 10 billion Australian dollars (about 6.5 billion US dollars). According to reports, this is Japan's largest foreign arms sales since the end of the nearly half-century arms export ban in 2014. According to the arrangement, the first batch of three frigates will be built in Japan and will be delivered from 2029. The first ship is expected to be put into use in 2030. The remaining eight will be built in western Australia by Australian military shipbuilding vifu.netpany Austal, with the goal of gradually replacing the active "ANZE"-class frigates.
⑴ After the disappointing U.S. employment data released, the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has increased significantly, and the probability of a rate cut has risen to about 94%. ⑵ Global stock markets rose as a result, and the US stock market rose by the double boost of positive financial reports and interest rate cut expectations.Technology stocks led the rise. ⑶ Analysts point out that moderate weakness in economic data may be interpreted as "good news" by the market because it increases the possibility that the Fed will relax monetary policy. ⑷ But if the unemployment rate continues to rise sharply, it will cause concerns about economic growth and corporate profits, which may turn into "bad news". ⑸ Oil prices fell due to the bleak demand outlook, while gold prices hovered near a weekly high, and the US dollar index rebounded after two consecutive days of decline. ⑹Trump's tariff remarks have also once again caused market concerns, and geopolitical risks are still fermenting.
⑴ In the minutes of the meeting from July 29 to 30, the Brazilian Central Bank pointed out that the inflation outlook remains grim. ⑵ Although recent inflation data has repeatedly fallen below analyst expectations, inflation levels are still far higher than the target. ⑶ The Central Bank vifu.netmittee will continue to monitor the pace of economic activities, exchange rate transmission effects and inflation expectations. ⑷ The minutes emphasize that high inflation forecasts, labor market pressure and the deaning of inflation expectations all constitute unfavorable inflation factors. ⑸ The Brazilian Central Bank believes that a long-term and highly contractile monetary policy is currently needed to ensure that inflation ultimately returns to its target. ⑹ At the meeting, the central bank decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15.00%.
⑴ Eurozone treasury yields remain stable on Tuesday, while Germany's 10-year treasury yields remain stable at 2.64%. ⑵ Italy's 10-year government bond yield was stable at 3.47%, and the yield gap between it and Germany's government bond narrowed to 83 basis points, the narrowest level since 2010. ⑶ The interest rate spread between Italy and France also narrowed to about 17 basis points, the lowest since 2007. ⑷ Although the euro zone's business activity data rebounded slightly in July, driven by US economic data and the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, market risk sentiment improved and interest rate spreads continued to narrow. ⑸ Analysts of the vifu.netherlands International Group (ING) pointed out that despite the decline in correlation with US interest rates, U.S. trends remain a key source of risk for the eurozone outlook. ⑹Traders raised their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut after weak U.S. non-farm data.
⑴ The UK Low-Wage vifu.netmission estimates that the UK's main minimum hourly wages need to be raised by about 4.1% to 12.71 pounds in 2026. ⑵This move aims to achieve the government's goal of increasing the minimum wage to two-thirds of its median income. ⑶ The agency will provide final advice to the government by the end of October, and the final figure may float between £12.55 and £12.86 per hour. ⑷ If this round of increase is implemented, it will have a direct impact on the UK's labor market and corporate costs. ⑸ The continued rise in the UK's minimum wage may support residents' consumption capacity to a certain extent, but it will also bring potential pressure on inflation.
Euro/USD: As of 20 Beijing time:23, EUR/USD fell, now at 1.1537, a drop of 0.31%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) fell on the last trading day as key resistance stabilized at 1.1575, with negative signals on (RSI), as it continues to have negative pressure as its trading below EMA50, trying to gain positive momentum that could help it get rid of negative pressure. This situation was supported by (RSI) reaching oversold levels, which suggests that an attempt to gain this positive momentum was soon over.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3283, a drop of 0.02%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price fell in the last session due to the current resistance level of 1.3300, with a major bearish trend dominant in the short term and trading near the support line. In addition to the appearance of (RSI), negative pressure continues due to its trading below EMA50, after reaching overbought levels.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3354.14, a drop of 0.57%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day, trying to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, while it successfully unloaded the obvious overbought conditions on (RSI), opening the way to achieve more gains on the short-term basis, strengthening the stability of this situation under the strong bull market as it was trading above the EMA50.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 37.452, an increase of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) fluctuated at the final intraday level, trying to get rid of its obvious overbought situation on (RSI), especially as negative signals emerge, gathering its positive force to help it get rid of the negative pressure of the EMA50 and recover by breaking through the short-term bearish correction trend line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 65.510, a drop of 1.22%. Before New York, (crude oil) prices fell on the last trading day and continued to trade below the EMA50 to reach our key support of $64.85 in the morning target, ready to break it to confirm the continued upside scenario, especially when unloading the oversold barNegative signals appear after the assembly (RSI), which opens the way for more losses in the near future.
JPMorgan Chase's US Treasury Client Survey shows that as of the week ending August 4, the proportion of longs has risen by 5 percentage points to the highest level since April 14, with a neutral decline of 5 percentage points, and the proportion of shorts has remained unchanged. The proportion of vifu.net longs hit the highest level since July 7.
Capito Macro emerging market economist Sheeran? Shah said that if President Trump imposes sanctions on Russian oil buyers, India can certainly find alternative crude oil suppliers, but India may not necessarily do so. The vast majority of the oil imported from India from Russia is shipped by sea, which makes it much easier to replace suppliers than pipeline transportation. In addition, Indian refineries can switch grades relatively easily. However, we doubt whether India will work wholeheartedly to get rid of its dependence on Russian oil. In India, it will not be a good result to be seen as succumbing to Trump's demands.
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