The dollar index has stabilized temporarily, Powell does not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July

On July 2, in the early trading of the Asian market on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.68. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell first and then rose, and fell nearly 96 mark during the session, and then rebounded before the US session, but failed to return to above 97, and finally closed down 0.14% to 96.64; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.2443%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.785%. As Trump's "Big and US bill" was passed in the Senate, and the July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline is getting closer, market demand for safe-haven. Spot gold rose more than 1% during the day, and once rushed above the $3350 mark during the session, and finally closed up 1.08%, closing at $3338.92/oz; spot silver finally closed down 0.2% at $36.01/oz. As investors digest positive demand indicators, the two oils rebounded. WTI crude oil once rushed above $65 during the session, but failed to stand firm and finally closed up 0.78% to $64.86 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.93% to $67.00 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 96.68. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the overall performance of the US dollar continued to weaken. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the US dollar has fallen by more than 5% since early April, and according to some analytical statistics, the cumulative decline of the US dollar index against a basket of major currencies has reached about 12% since mid-February. At the beginning of the third quarter, this trend continued, with strong market bearish sentiment and the weak pattern of the US dollar was initially established. Technically, the US dollar index is currently hovering around 96.85 and is from the intraday low of 96.The lower wedge boundary was retested after the .38 rebounded, but it was still well below the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), and is currently at 98.20. This continued rejection of EMA highlights the intensity of the current downward trend. Break below the wedge indicates that bearish pressure may accelerate with no sign of an immediate reversal.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1801. Against the backdrop of the recent weakening of the US dollar, the euro has maintained nine consecutive positive momentum, and the strong upward offensive momentum is obvious. But the euro/dollar fell from a high of 1.1830 on Tuesday as Treasury yields rebounded as the U.S. tax bill passed the Senate. ECB Dekindos warned that EUR/USD above 1.2000 will be "complex"; euro zone data will remain mixed. Technically, the intraday bias of the EUR/USD remains upward, and the current rebound should be from 1.1064 to 1.1927 to 61.8% forecast target of 1.0176 to 1.1572. On the downside, a secondary support level below 1.1709 will turn intraday bias into neutral and lead to consolidation. But the downside space should be controlled above the 1.1452 support level to bring another rebound.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3745. The GBP/USD hit a new high again, reaching a 45-month peak on Tuesday. The dollar suffered heavy blows in all aspects, pushing the pound higher. The market is preparing for the U.S. non-farm employment data on Thursday, with a U.S. holiday on Friday. Technically, the intraday bias of GBP/USD rose again, breaking through the temporary top of 1.3770. From 1.3138 to 1.3813, firmly breaking through the 100% forecast from 1.2099 to 1.3206, we will aim at the 1.4004 forecast level next. On the downside, if it is below 1.3673, it will turn into an intraday center again. But the retracement should be controlled above the 1.3369 support level to bring another rebound.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading, gold trading was around 337.39. Trump's tax cut bill ignited a risk aversion boom, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again. The gold market ushered in a new round of upward boom in early July 2025. Spot gold prices soared more than 1% on Tuesday, hitting the highest level since June 24 at $3,357.82/ounce, closing at $3,338.77/ounce, up for two consecutive trading days.

Technical: From the daily chart, gold is currently running within a typical Bollinger band range. The Bollinger middle rail is at $3,344. The current price is trading near the middle rail, indicating that long and short trading has not yet broken the equilibrium. The Bollinger upper and lower rails are at $3,420 and $3,268 respectively, forming a clear upper and lower boundary limit. Recently, the price has been supported around $3,250 many times, forming a stable bottom area of ​​the box, while the upper one is around $3,400. Obstructed, repeated tests failed to make a breakthrough. Analysts believe that this wide box consolidation pattern of US$3250-3400 suggests that gold trends are still in a sideways trend in the short term, and it is still waiting for key catalytic factors to trigger a breakthrough. The MACD indicator shows that the fast and slow lines are shortened. Although the bar chart shows signs of shortening, there is no obvious bottom divergence signal, indicating that the market repair has not been vifu.netpleted. The RSI index remains stable around 52 and has not entered the overbought range, indicating that there is still room for further price upwards, but The momentum is slightly insufficient. In the short term, if the price effectively falls below the support of US$3,250, it will form a risk of accelerated pullback; on the contrary, if it can stand firm in the middle of the Bollinger and break through US$3,400 in volume, it is expected to open upward space and challenge the resistance of US$3,451 and the previous high of US$3,499.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trend

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 64.83. As investors evaluate the development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, WTI prices fell. Meanwhile, traders are cautiously waiting for the OPEC+ meeting to decide on the group's production policy in August. U.S. officials said Iran was ready to mine in the Strait of Hormuz last month after Israel launched an attack, but the mines were never deployed. Oil traders will closely monitor whether Iran's near-nuclear bomb-grade uranium stockpile has been exhausted and whether its move to cut off vifu.netmunication with officials from the United Nations (UN) main monitoring agency will trigger a new round of attacks in the United States.

Technical: The daily chart of the US crude oil (WTI) shows that oil prices are under pressure below the 20-day moving average, and the short-term trend is bearish. The relative strength index (RSI) is below 50, and the momentum indicator is weak, indicating that the buying strength is limited. In addition, the K-line structure is in a "downward flag shape". If the oil price falls below the key support of US$64.50, it may trigger a further risk of falling to the US$63 or even US$60 area; on the contrary, if it can re-establish 20 Only when the daily moving average (about around $66) is expected to recover rebound momentum. Overall, oil prices are weak in the short term, and the technical pattern and fundamentals are bearish in each other.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on July 2, 2025

①17:00Eurozone May unemployment rate

②19:30Number of layoffs by challenger vifu.netpanies in the United States in June

③20:15Number of ADP employment in the United States in June

④22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 27

⑤22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 27

⑥22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the week from the United States to June 27

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