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US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander

Post time: 2025-06-06 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly criticize each other." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On June 6, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.82. On Thursday, the heads of Chinese and US dollars talked on the phone, and the US dollar index reversed V-shaped reversal, but remained below the 99 mark, and finally closed down 0.42% to 98.813. U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.391%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.928%. Spot gold took a roller coaster ride, and after hitting the $3,400/ounce mark during the session, it took a sharp turn and fell, giving up all the gains in the day, and finally closed down 0.58% to close at $3,352.83/ounce; spot silver performed strongly, standing above the $36/ounce mark for the first time since February 2012, and finally closed up 3.33% to $35.65/ounce. As more news of the progress of trade agreements boosted demand outlook, international crude oil rose, with WTI crude oil hitting a maximum of $63.295 per barrel, eventually closing up 0.74% to $62.63 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.57% to $65.04 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.70. The dollar could end a year-long easing cycle and U.S. data showed weak labor market conditions amid increasing economic resistance from tariffs. Although the dollar weakened against the euro, the dollar strengthened slightly against safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss francs, reflecting possible position adjustments before the release of employment data. Technically, the most recent resistance level of the US dollar index is at 99.00–99.20 range. A breakout above the 99.20 level will push the US dollar index toward the next resistance level 100.20–100.40.

US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1452. Lagarde said the ECB's interest rate cut cycle was about to end, and the euro rose against the dollar. The weakening of the dollar is a continuation of its recent weakness, which has fallen nearly 11% against the euro this year. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains above resistance level 1.1410–1.1425, it will move to the next resistance level, i.e., in the range of 1.1555–1.1570.

US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovers around 1.3581. The GBP/USD tested its highest buying in more than three years on Thursday, briefly breaking the 1.3600 mark in intraday trading, for the first time in 40 months. However, bullish momentum remains mild, with investor sentiment being affected by the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) and the rapidly intensifying contradiction between U.S. President Donald Trump and his (now left) right-hand man Elon Musk. Technically, successful testing of resistance level 1.3620–1.3640 will push GBP/USD to the next resistance level 1.3735–1.3750.

US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 3359.51. Gold prices surged and fell on Thursday. Earlier intraday silver broke through the $35 mark, hitting a 13-year high, driving gold prices to rise above the 3400 mark, hitting a new high in the past four weeks to around $3403.28 per ounce. However, spot gold prices closed down 0.6% to $3352.65 per ounce due to signals of easing trade tensions released by the call between Chinese and US leaders. The market's attention has begun to turn to the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve's policy trends.

US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander(图4)

Technical: From the daily chart, gold is currently fluctuating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band, and the overall situation is still in the consolidation stage in the upward trend. After breaking through $3,300, the price was temporarily blocked at the $3,430 line. This level is the previous high area and is also the short-term resistance corresponding to the upper track of the Bollinger band. Analysts believe that if the subsequent volume exceeds US$3,430, it is expected to challenge the high point of US$3,499.83 again. In terms of MACD indicators, express line (DIFF)) and the slow line (DEA) are above the zero axis, showing a mild golden cross, the bar chart turns slightly red, and the kinetic energy begins to recover, suggesting that there is a possibility of further strengthening in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 58, and there is no overbought signal, indicating that the market sentiment is relatively neutral and is retaining space for subsequent rises. From the overall structure, gold shows a significant box oscillation pattern, with support level referring to the $3300 mark and resistance level focusing on the $3430 level; once it breaks through, the space above is expected to be further opened.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 62.52. The recent uptrend is fading as the market encounters technological resistance and demand concerns intensify. Price is still above the 50-day moving average of $62.40. However, the rally stagnated at $63.96, just below the key resistance levels of $64.19 and $64.40. If these levels rise above, it may open up a path towards the 200-day moving average of $68.72. Without follow-up follow-up, the market could face the risk of a lower pivot range between $62.59 and $59.51. The market's attention has begun to turn to the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve's policy trends.

US dollar index reversal, gold rides on a roller coaster, Trump and Musk openly slander(图5)

Technical: The market is trapped in the contradiction between tightening crude oil supply and insufficient fuel consumption. If gasoline demand fails to recover to levels that match refinery production, the risk of oversupply of refined oil remains high. Unless the price trend breaks above $64.40 with strong trading volume and demand indicators improve, crude oil futures face bearish prospects in the short term.

Forex market trading reminder on June 6, 2025

14:00German April seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate

14:00German April seasonally adjusted trade account

14:00UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index monthly rate

14:45France April industrial output monthly rate

14:45France April April trade account

17:00Eurozone's first quarter GDP annual rate correction value

17:00Eurozone's first quarter quarterly adjusted employment final value

17:00Eurozone's first quarter quarterly adjusted employment final value

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17:00 Eurozone April retail sales monthly rate

20:30 Canadian employment in May

20:30 US May unemployment rate

20:30 US May seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population

20:30 US May average annual wage annual rate

20:30 US May average monthly wage per hour

20:30 US May average monthly wage per hour

The next day 01:00 US to June 6 total oil drilling rigs

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