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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: European junk bonds hit a record single-month issuance volume of 22.5 billion euros, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 1st". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
U.S. stock index futures fell slightly across the board, while S&P 500 futures fell slightly to about 0.2%. European stocks rose slightly, with the German DAX30 index rising 0.17%. The FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%.
European high-yield bond market set a new record of issuance volume in June. As investors continue to pour into this asset class with attractive yields and relatively stable rates of return, related transactions are still on the rise. Data vifu.netpiled by institutions show that last month, vifu.netpanies issued a total of 22.5 billion euros (about 26.6 billion US dollars) junk bonds, nearly 4 billion euros higher than the previous record set in June 2021. The market added another iconic deal this month - FloraFoodGroupBV, backed by KKR Group, vifu.netpleted its first CCC-rated bond pricing in nearly a year on Monday, which is one of the lowest in credit ratings.
On July 1, local time, Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov said at a briefing that Russia and Ukraine were negotiating the specific date of the third round of negotiations. Peskov said that it is difficult to talk about the possibility of accelerating the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine at this stage. Russia has no intention of delaying, nor has it slowed down or stopped the implementation of the relevant work of reaching the agreement. He thanked the US for its efforts to promote the negotiations. At the same time, Russia strongly condemns the Kiev regime's attack on Russian peaceful cities, willing to achieve relevant goals in the Ukraine situation through political and diplomatic means.
According to US media reports, the United States Agency for International Development spent its last day of independent performance on June 30 local time. Two former US Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama rarely "jointly" against the Trump administration that day, believing that shutting down this US soft power promotion agency was a "major mistake."
⑴On July 1, 2025, the new Bank of Japan member Zeng and his team clearly stated at the inauguration press conference that they supported the President Ueda Kazuo's gradual and cautious interest rate hike policy. ⑵A branch said: "In terms of the current economic situation, the time for accelerating interest rate hikes is not yet ripe. I fully agree with the president's view and must act cautiously." ⑶ This remark shows that Kazuo Ueda is waiting for the impact of US tariffs on economic data, his policy stance has been supported again in the nine-member vifu.netmittee. ⑷Enterprise replaced former member Nakamura Hiaki, who had voted against Ueda's interest rate hike three times.
⑴ On July 1, 2025, the Indonesian Central Bank Governor stated that additional efforts are needed to support economic growth. ⑵ Economic growth is expected to be about 5% in 2025. ⑶ Economic growth in 2026 is expected to be between 4.7% and 5.5%. ⑷ The governor pointed out that the impact of the assessment is weak global demand, so exports are expected to weaken. ⑸ Indonesia's central bank sees the need to find alternative markets for exports.
⑴On July 1, 2025, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) sold 1.098 billion euros of 3-month notes, and the German Central Bank announced it. ⑵The average rate of return of these notes is 1.93%. ⑶ The bid multiple is 2.7, showing the market’s positive demand for this bill issuance.
⑴On July 1, 2025, the cost of providing default insurance for high-yield euro credits using credit default swaps (CDS) remained at a four-month low hit on Monday. ⑵ Although the 90-day suspension of U.S. reciprocity tariffs will end on July 9, market sentiment remains calm. ⑶XTB's Caslin Brooks said in a report: "Investors are currently on the wait-and-see state, waiting for specific news before taking the next move." ⑷ According to S&P global market intelligence data, the iTraxx European Cross-Index, which tracks euro high-yield credit default swaps, is currently trading at 283 basis points after it fell to this level on Monday.
⑴ On July 1, U.S. Senate Republicans worked hard to pass President Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, but there were serious differences within the party about the bill expected to increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion. ⑵ SenateMeeting overnight and voting on a series of amendments is part of a vifu.netplex process the Republican Party has taken to bypass Senate rules that normally require 60 of its 100 members to agree. ⑶ In the hours before dawn, lawmakers snatched a 99-1 99-1 federal ban on artificial intelligence, which supporters have used as an innovative way to get rid of various different requirements. ⑷ Trump's Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and the difficulty of passing the bill exposed the party's differences on debt issues. ⑸ The bill will also cut Medicaid and some food aid programs for low-income Americans to partially offset the cost of tax cuts. ⑹ Republican Senator Tom Tillis said: "They are still trying to reach a resolution on the vote, and we may have an hour delay because they have to get all the technical corrections right." ⑺ Tillis was one of two Republicans who voted Saturday to try to stop the bill from advancing, a behavior that sparked strong criticism from Trump, leading to his announcement that he would not seek reelection next year. ⑻The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released an assessment of the bill’s impact on $36.2 trillion U.S. debt on Sunday. The Senate version is expected to cost $3.3 trillion, $800 billion more than the version passed by the House last month. ⑻Many Republicans object to the assessment, believing that extending existing policies will not increase debt.
⑴On July 1, UBS lowered its 10-year U.S. Treasury yield forecast due to weakening prospects in the U.S. job market. ⑵The bank expects the 10-year Treasury bond yield to drop from the previous forecast of 4.20% to 4.10%, with a stop loss of 4.40%. ⑶UBS strategist ReinoutDeBock said that if the U.S. employment data released this week are weak, including the number of unemployment claims and non-farm employment data in early June, U.S. Treasury yields may fall. ⑷ He also pointed out that if the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, interest rates will fall. ⑸ UBS bets on the US Treasury curve, that is, the gap between short-term and long-term yields widen. ⑹Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield was latest at 4.199%, and earlier hit a two-month low of 4.191%.
⑴RHB economist Huang Xianyong said in the report that Indonesia's inflation level in 2025 is expected to remain stable due to sluggish demand and no major food price shocks. ⑵ He observed that global vifu.netmodity prices have a certain transmission effect on Indonesia's domestic inflation, especially in the fields of energy and precious metals, but he believes that this has limited risk to overall inflation. ⑶ Huang Xianyong maintains the forecast of 2.00% and core inflation rate of 2.40% in 2025 unchanged. ⑷ He expects the Indonesian central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in July as the U.S. suspension of tariffs is about to end, bringing global uncertainty. ⑸ But he believes that if external risks are alleviated, the Indonesian central bank has room for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may be in August or September.
⑴ On July 1, 2025, Attirio Zaneti, a member of the Swiss National Bank's expanded vifu.netmittee, said that even if the interest rate is zero, the Swiss National Bank still has tools to guide inflation to its price stability target. ⑵Zoneti told reporters: "Entering negative interest rates is not an obvious step, but if necessary, I won't say we don't want to do it." ⑶ He added: "So negative interest rates are an option, but we realize that the transmission of monetary policy under negative interest rates is different from the positive interest rate field."
⑴ On July 1, a new member of the Bank of Japan Policy vifu.netmittee said at the inauguration press conference that the central bank should carefully consider interest rate hikes when the trade outlook is highly uncertain. ⑵ Add a new bank said: "In view of the recent economic situation, we are no longer in a position where we can rush to raise interest rates." ⑶ He emphasized caution and should not rush to tighten monetary policy just because the real interest rate is negative. ⑷Zeng Yiren, former chief financial officer of Mitsubishi vifu.netmercial, replaced Toyoaki Nakamura, who had voted against the interest rate hike. ⑸ He described his policy position as "a piece of white paper" and did not disclose whether it was loose or tight. ⑹ He has no major differences with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and the bank's view that basic inflation is still below the 2% target. ⑺While trade uncertainty has allowed the central bank to temporarily keep its policy unchanged, short-term corporate surveys released earlier showed that confidence in large Japanese manufacturers improved in the second quarter despite concerns about U.S. tariffs, which could keep the central bank considering further rate hikes.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1811, an increase of 0.21%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) continued to rise at the most recent day-intraday level to reach our target of 1.1815, with a dominant bullish trend, and its trading follows secondary and major slashes, indicating the strength of the bullish momentum, with positive pressure continuing to exist as it trades above the EMA50. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) starts to show negative signs after reaching overbought levels, which may slow down the upward trading.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3746, an increase of 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell slightly on the last trading day, trying to accumulate positive momentum that could help it rise again, with the main bullish trend dominating on a short-term basis, and its trading follows a slash, which strengthens this bullish scenario with the emergence of positive signals on the (RSI).
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3354.68, an increase of 1.59%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (gold) expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, exiting the bearish correction channel range that short-term limits its previous trading, providing more positive momentum to help it surpass the EMA50 resistance level and surpass all negative pressures to announce its full recovery, especially with the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), despite reaching overbought levels.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.387, an increase of 0.85%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day, and, supported by a positive signal of (RSI), continued to move along a small bullish trend in the short term, successfully surpassing the EMA50's resistance and surpassing its negative pressure, settled above the key resistance of $36.30, announcing its ability to achieve more returns.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 65.730, an increase of 0.97%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (crude oil) rose in the last intraday trading, supported by the bullish signal of (RSI) and after reaching the oversold level, the price moved within a limited sideways trading range, creating a confusing area. The goal is to detect the upcoming trajectory when exiting the range in the short term, in the dominance of the short-term bearish correction wave.
CITIC macroeconomist Andrew Kenningham said in a report that as inflation continues to cool down, the ECB policymakers' decision to final rate cuts is falling into subtle trade-offs. Although overall inflation in June rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% in May, the situation where core inflation stabilized at 2.3% and service industry inflation only rose slightly should give policymakers a little relief. Kenningham predicts that based on expectations of a decline in oil prices, inflation may remain below 2% for most of the next two years. "All this shows that the fight against inflation has basically won," Kenningham analyzed. "But because of this, the ECB will face a difficult choice - whether to end this easing cycle."
It is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange】: European junk bonds hit a record single-month issuance volume of 22.5 billion euros, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 1" was carefully vifu.netpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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