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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Russia and Ukraine begin the second round of direct negotiations, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 2nd". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major futures indexes all fell, Dow futures fell 0.43%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.67%. Most European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 0.7%, the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.2%, and the French CAC40 index falling 0.28%.
National time today (June 2), around 14:45, that is, around 19:45 Beijing time. After nearly 2 hours delaying from the original time, the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegation began the second round of negotiations since the recovery of direct negotiations at the Chilaon Palace in Istanbul, Turkey.
According to data from the French auto industry association Plateforme Automobile, Tesla sold only 721 cars in the country in May, down 67% from the same period last year. Despite the vifu.netpany's launch of a facelifted version of its best-selling model, the number of registrations is still at its lowest level since July 2022. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 14%.
A EU spokesman said on Monday that the EU has sent a technical team to Washington for trade negotiations with the Trump administration. EU warned last weekend that Trump raising steel tariffs to 50% could endanger two major economiesnegotiations between them and trigger retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. A spokesman reiterated the warning on Monday, saying the EU is ready to take countermeasures if “our negotiations cannot achieve a balanced result.” EU Trade vifu.netmissioner Sevkovic is expected to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Greer in Paris on Wednesday.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Asia's second richest man, Gautam Adani, faces new challenges in the fight with prosecutors. The US Department of Justice is investigating whether Adani's vifu.netpany imports Iranian liquefied petroleum gas from India through the vifu.netpany's port of Mondra. A spokesman for Adani denied any intentional evasion of sanctions or involves trade in Iran's origin in liquefied petroleum gas, saying he was unaware of any investigation by the U.S. authorities. Last November, U.S. prosecutors charged Adani with fraud, saying he planned to bribe about $250 million to Indian officials in order to obtain a lucrative contract for Indian solar power supply. The report said prosecutors are reviewing the activities of several LPG tankers used to deliver goods to Adani businesses.
⑴ German 10-year government bond yields rose on Monday after a sharp drop last week, while short-term yields remained stable, and traders prepared for the ECB's expected rate cut this week. ⑵ German 10-year government bond yield rose 3.5 basis points to 2.54%, after the previous week recorded its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. ⑶ The market has little response to the data that the decline in the euro zone manufacturing industry has further eased. ⑷ The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index rose from 49.0 in April to 49.4 in May, a 33-month high, consistent with preliminary estimates, but still below the 50 boom-bust line. ⑸ The market is concerned about US trade policy. Trump said on Friday that he plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, exacerbating trade tensions. ⑹ The ECB is expected to cut interest rates to 2% on Thursday, the eighth rate cut in this cycle, and investors believe it will suspend interest rate cuts later, as the economy performs better than expected and long-term inflation concerns reappear. ⑺Money market traders almost fully priced a rate cut of 25 basis points on Thursday, while a loose price of about 55 basis points by the end of the year suggests only another 25 basis points cut. ⑻The yield on Germany's two-year government bonds is more sensitive to changes in interest rate policies and expectations, with little change on Monday, still at 1.79%. ⑼ Traders were cautious about the 10-year Treasury auction in Japan held on Tuesday, following weak demand for long-term Treasury auctions in May. ⑽Global long-term treasury yields have risen recently, although Germany's government bonds have little change and Germany has promised to spend. ⑾The yield on Germany's 30-year government bonds rose 4 basis points to 3.05%, but is still far below the year-on-year high of 3.25% since mid-March. ⑿ Italy's 10-year government bond yield rose 4.5 basis points to 3.54%, pushing the spread of the 10-year government bond yields slightly widened to 97 basis points.
⑴ Germany's second largest steel maker Salzgitter warned that the U.S. tariff policy has dealt a serious blow to European industry, after the U.S. government announced plans to raise import tariffs to 50%. ⑵The United States is the most important market in the European steel export industry, accounting for one-fifth of European steel exports, about 4 million tons. ⑶ Salzgiot CEO Gunnar Groebler said that the unstable tariff policy of the United States has had a serious impact on the European economy, especially Germany. ⑷Groebler pointed out that in addition to direct tariffs on US exports, the EU market is also facing greater import pressure due to the increase in Asian steel imports in Europe. ⑸ Asian steel has been pouring into the European market for many years, and the trend has intensified by US tariffs, which has been the biggest concern for the European steel industry, and there is also the issue of high energy prices. ⑹ To address these concerns, the EU tightened its steel import quota on April 1, further reducing inflows by 15% as part of its so-called European Steel and Metal Action Plan. ⑺Salzgitter's share price fell along with other major European steel vifu.netpanies Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal, with a drop of between 0.6% and 1.8%. ⑻Salzgitter's sales in the United States account for only 4.5% of its total sales, with non-steel technology accounting for half of it. ThyssenKrupp previously said that the United States accounts for less than 5% of its steel exports. ⑼Groebler said that the U.S. raising steel import tariffs to 50% should prompt the European vifu.netmission to speed up the implementation of measures in its steel and metal action plan.
⑴UK mortgage approval volume dropped to a minimum of more than a year in April as the market adapts to higher home purchase taxes. ⑵The stamp duty reduction for home purchase expired at the end of March, resulting in a surge in home purchases in March and a sharp drop in April. ⑶ Mortgage approvals fell from 63,603 in March to 60,463 in April, down from the 63,000 economists surveyed by Reuters. ⑷ vifu.net mortgage loan borrowing decreased by £759 million in April, the largest monthly decline since January 2024. ⑸Nationwide, the second largest home loan agency in the UK in Dalian, said that housing price growth in May exceeded expectations, and low unemployment and wage growth exceeded inflation to drive demand. ⑹CapitalEconomics said mortgage approvals fell for the third consecutive month in April, which may not be entirely due to buyers buying homes in advance to avoid taxes. ⑺ Capital Economics Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory said she has a downside risk for her annual growth rate forecast of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. ⑻Bank of England data showed that consumer-free credit increased by 1.58 billion pounds, with an annual growth rate rising from 6.2% in March to 6.7%, the fastest growth rate since October 2024.
The chief economy of financial services vifu.netpany AMPAustralian first-quarter GDP data to be released on Wednesday could show that the economy slowed early in the year due to sluggish consumer demand and a decline in business investment, scientist Shane Oliver said. Oliver expects growth in trade, government spending and residential investment to bring about a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. This will increase the annual growth rate to 1.5%. Mediocre growth figures should support the idea that the RBA still has a lot of room for interest rate cuts.
Euro/USD: As of 20:28 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1419, an increase of 0.63%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) expanded its gains in recent intraday trading, hitting our morning targets and attacking the key resistance of 1.1420, supported by its trading above the EMA50, which is accompanied by a short-term bull trend line.
GBP/USD: As of 20:28 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3540, an increase of 0.63%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price closed higher in the last intraday trading, with key support stabilizing at 1.3440, which provided some positive momentum, with the (RSI) starting to show positive signals after reaching oversold levels, with the main bullish trend dominant, and its trading followed a small slash on a short-term basis, which allowed the price to try to get rid of the negative pressures of the EMA50 to strengthen the positive scenario.
Spot gold: As of 20:28 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3362.47, an increase of 2.19%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price rose significantly in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, and despite reaching overbought levels, there was a positive signal on the (RSI) to attack its current resistance at $3,655, while it moved the range of a small bullish channel, limiting its previous short-term trading.
Spot silver: As of 20:28 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.418, an increase of 1.38%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after reaching an exaggerated oversold level, silver prices rose steadily in recent intraday trading, gaining positive momentum from the bullish trend line on a short-term basis, accompanied by the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), which increased positive momentum and allowed the price to exceed the resistance of the EMA50 and exceed its negative pressure.
Crude Oil Market: As of 20:28 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose to 63.640, up 4.70%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (crude oil) rose in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by its exchange above the EMA50 and the stability of the key support of the $60.00, the horizontal range between this support and the $63.50 resistance remains the short-term dominance. On the other hand, we note that the (RSI) indicator reaches an exaggerated overbought level that may slow its upcoming rally.
Jefferie analysts Cole Hathorn and Tommaso Castello said in a report that raising steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% will have an adverse impact on EU listed steel vifu.netpanies exported to the United States. For example, under the 25% tariff, ArcelorMittal, headquartered in Luxembourg, is expected to face US$100 million in losses each quarter. Increased to 50%, the impact will rise, estimated to exceed $500 million per year. Jefferies said that rising tariffs to 50% will also affect Austria's Voestalpine, increasing the vifu.netpany's impact from 30 million to 40 million euros under the initial 25% tariff to more than 80 million euros.
Dutch International currency analyst Chris Turner said in the report: "The pound remains relatively support, especially against the US dollar. "He said that as interest rates drop, the improvement of UK housing price data on Monday may help support the British economy. Nationwide data shows that house prices last month rose by 3.5% vifu.netpared with a year ago. LSEG data shows that the pound GBP/USD rose to an intraday high of 1.3557 against the US dollar, approaching the three-year high of $1.3593 last week.
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